Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—$876,000 raised and $717,000 cash on hand as of late March—positions her as the clear Democratic primary favorite against challenger Juan Arauz, bolstering trader consensus at 60% for Democrats to hold Florida's newly redrawn 14th Congressional District. Recent mid-decade redistricting by Gov. Ron DeSantis shifted the district southeast into more Republican-leaning areas like Brandon and Plant City, where Trump won 55% in 2024, prompting ratings shifts to Lean Republican by Cook Political Report and others as of mid-May. However, a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, including recent entrants Bea Valenti and Dan Weldon alongside 2024 nominee Robert Rochford, lacks a dominant fundraiser, tempering GOP odds at 40% ahead of the June 12 filing deadline, August primaries, and ongoing court challenges to the map.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$19,674 Vol.
$19,674 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
60%
共和党
40%
$19,674 Vol.
$19,674 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,517 Vol.
60%
共和党
$11,157 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—$876,000 raised and $717,000 cash on hand as of late March—positions her as the clear Democratic primary favorite against challenger Juan Arauz, bolstering trader consensus at 60% for Democrats to hold Florida's newly redrawn 14th Congressional District. Recent mid-decade redistricting by Gov. Ron DeSantis shifted the district southeast into more Republican-leaning areas like Brandon and Plant City, where Trump won 55% in 2024, prompting ratings shifts to Lean Republican by Cook Political Report and others as of mid-May. However, a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, including recent entrants Bea Valenti and Dan Weldon alongside 2024 nominee Robert Rochford, lacks a dominant fundraiser, tempering GOP odds at 40% ahead of the June 12 filing deadline, August primaries, and ongoing court challenges to the map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
音量
$19,674終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—$876,000 raised and $717,000 cash on hand as of late March—positions her as the clear Democratic primary favorite against challenger Juan Arauz, bolstering trader consensus at 60% for Democrats to hold Florida's newly redrawn 14th Congressional District. Recent mid-decade redistricting by Gov. Ron DeSantis shifted the district southeast into more Republican-leaning areas like Brandon and Plant City, where Trump won 55% in 2024, prompting ratings shifts to Lean Republican by Cook Political Report and others as of mid-May. However, a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, including recent entrants Bea Valenti and Dan Weldon alongside 2024 nominee Robert Rochford, lacks a dominant fundraiser, tempering GOP odds at 40% ahead of the June 12 filing deadline, August primaries, and ongoing court challenges to the map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,674終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—$876,000 raised and $717,000 cash on hand as of late March—positions her as the clear Democratic primary favorite against challenger Juan Arauz, bolstering trader consensus at 60% for Democrats to hold Florida's newly redrawn 14th Congressional District. Recent mid-decade redistricting by Gov. Ron DeSantis shifted the district southeast into more Republican-leaning areas like Brandon and Plant City, where Trump won 55% in 2024, prompting ratings shifts to Lean Republican by Cook Political Report and others as of mid-May. However, a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, including recent entrants Bea Valenti and Dan Weldon alongside 2024 nominee Robert Rochford, lacks a dominant fundraiser, tempering GOP odds at 40% ahead of the June 12 filing deadline, August primaries, and ongoing court challenges to the map.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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