Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate a maximum temperature near 22°C for Madrid on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate southerly flow that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model runs show minimal variability, with surface observations confirming dew points and wind patterns consistent with this range rather than the warmer anomalies sometimes seen in late spring. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport places average highs around 21–23°C, providing context for why traders assign the strongest implied probability to 22°C while giving secondary weight to 23°C. Updated model guidance and real-time station data released throughout the day will determine final resolution within the narrow 21–24°C window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のマドリードの最高気温は?
22°C 65%
23°C 34%
24°C 5.5%
25°C <1%
$33,405 Vol.
$33,405 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
65%
23°C
31%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 65%
23°C 34%
24°C 5.5%
25°C <1%
$33,405 Vol.
$33,405 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
65%
23°C
31%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate a maximum temperature near 22°C for Madrid on May 17, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate southerly flow that limit daytime heating. Ensemble model runs show minimal variability, with surface observations confirming dew points and wind patterns consistent with this range rather than the warmer anomalies sometimes seen in late spring. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport places average highs around 21–23°C, providing context for why traders assign the strongest implied probability to 22°C while giving secondary weight to 23°C. Updated model guidance and real-time station data released throughout the day will determine final resolution within the narrow 21–24°C window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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