Traders assign overwhelming probability to 27°C as Tokyo’s highest temperature on August 29, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from agencies showing a peak under persistent cloud cover, northeasterly flow, and light-to-moderate rain that caps diurnal warming. Current observations place readings near 24–25°C with humidity 78–90% and dew points around 21°C, aligning with late-August climatology where maximums typically reach the mid-20s Celsius before any brief afternoon lift. This market-implied outcome incorporates model agreement on limited instability and no strong subsidence to push values notably higher. Sustained heavy rainfall or a cooler maritime air intrusion could keep the daily maximum below the threshold, while unexpected clearing would be required to exceed it.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月29日の東京の最高気温は?
27°C 99.6%
29°C <1%
28°C <1%
26°C <1%
$64,424 Vol.
$64,424 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.6%
29°C <1%
28°C <1%
26°C <1%
$64,424 Vol.
$64,424 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders assign overwhelming probability to 27°C as Tokyo’s highest temperature on August 29, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from agencies showing a peak under persistent cloud cover, northeasterly flow, and light-to-moderate rain that caps diurnal warming. Current observations place readings near 24–25°C with humidity 78–90% and dew points around 21°C, aligning with late-August climatology where maximums typically reach the mid-20s Celsius before any brief afternoon lift. This market-implied outcome incorporates model agreement on limited instability and no strong subsidence to push values notably higher. Sustained heavy rainfall or a cooler maritime air intrusion could keep the daily maximum below the threshold, while unexpected clearing would be required to exceed it.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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