Recent high-profile cabinet exits—including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—have already elevated 2026 turnover above historical benchmarks for a second-term administration. Trader pricing clusters tightly between one and five additional departures because ongoing midterm pressures, anticipated congressional oversight, and policy frictions around Iran and immigration continue to prompt scrutiny of remaining officials, while personal factors and private-sector opportunities create unpredictable timing. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s late-August exit and reports of legislative-affairs staff departures illustrate the current pace, yet no single catalyst has emerged to accelerate or halt further changes before December 31. The spread across low-to-mid outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether stabilization or continued recalibration will prevail.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1 28%
5 21.7%
4 21.7%
2 20.3%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
0
1%
1
30%
2
20%
3
13%
4
22%
5
22%
6
5%
7+
12%
1 28%
5 21.7%
4 21.7%
2 20.3%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
0
$4,977 Vol.
1%
1
$590 Vol.
30%
2
$425 Vol.
20%
3
$261 Vol.
13%
4
$321 Vol.
22%
5
$358 Vol.
22%
6
$428 Vol.
5%
7+
$1,877 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent high-profile cabinet exits—including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—have already elevated 2026 turnover above historical benchmarks for a second-term administration. Trader pricing clusters tightly between one and five additional departures because ongoing midterm pressures, anticipated congressional oversight, and policy frictions around Iran and immigration continue to prompt scrutiny of remaining officials, while personal factors and private-sector opportunities create unpredictable timing. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s late-August exit and reports of legislative-affairs staff departures illustrate the current pace, yet no single catalyst has emerged to accelerate or halt further changes before December 31. The spread across low-to-mid outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether stabilization or continued recalibration will prevail.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
音量
$9,236終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.Recent high-profile cabinet exits—including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—have already elevated 2026 turnover above historical benchmarks for a second-term administration. Trader pricing clusters tightly between one and five additional departures because ongoing midterm pressures, anticipated congressional oversight, and policy frictions around Iran and immigration continue to prompt scrutiny of remaining officials, while personal factors and private-sector opportunities create unpredictable timing. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s late-August exit and reports of legislative-affairs staff departures illustrate the current pace, yet no single catalyst has emerged to accelerate or halt further changes before December 31. The spread across low-to-mid outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether stabilization or continued recalibration will prevail.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
音量
$9,236終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-profile cabinet exits—including firings of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—have already elevated 2026 turnover above historical benchmarks for a second-term administration. Trader pricing clusters tightly between one and five additional departures because ongoing midterm pressures, anticipated congressional oversight, and policy frictions around Iran and immigration continue to prompt scrutiny of remaining officials, while personal factors and private-sector opportunities create unpredictable timing. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s late-August exit and reports of legislative-affairs staff departures illustrate the current pace, yet no single catalyst has emerged to accelerate or halt further changes before December 31. The spread across low-to-mid outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether stabilization or continued recalibration will prevail.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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