**California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion, faces two conflicting measures—Propositions 41 and 42—explicitly designed to nullify it.** Under state rules, if multiple initiatives pass, the one receiving the most votes prevails. Recent Public Policy Institute of California polling shows Prop 40 with narrow 52% support alongside similar backing for the opposing measures, while opponents backed by figures such as Sergey Brin have committed over $100 million to advertising and signature efforts. Governor Gavin Newsom and several major labor and business groups have also opposed the tax. These dynamics, combined with the November 3, 2026 election timeline and historical patterns for closely contested California ballot measures, underpin traders' 65.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not outpoll its rivals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
35% 確率
新規
新規
2027/07/31
はい
35% 確率
新規
新規
2027/07/31
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion, faces two conflicting measures—Propositions 41 and 42—explicitly designed to nullify it.** Under state rules, if multiple initiatives pass, the one receiving the most votes prevails. Recent Public Policy Institute of California polling shows Prop 40 with narrow 52% support alongside similar backing for the opposing measures, while opponents backed by figures such as Sergey Brin have committed over $100 million to advertising and signature efforts. Governor Gavin Newsom and several major labor and business groups have also opposed the tax. These dynamics, combined with the November 3, 2026 election timeline and historical patterns for closely contested California ballot measures, underpin traders' 65.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not outpoll its rivals.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
音量
$468終了日
2027/08/01マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion, faces two conflicting measures—Propositions 41 and 42—explicitly designed to nullify it.** Under state rules, if multiple initiatives pass, the one receiving the most votes prevails. Recent Public Policy Institute of California polling shows Prop 40 with narrow 52% support alongside similar backing for the opposing measures, while opponents backed by figures such as Sergey Brin have committed over $100 million to advertising and signature efforts. Governor Gavin Newsom and several major labor and business groups have also opposed the tax. These dynamics, combined with the November 3, 2026 election timeline and historical patterns for closely contested California ballot measures, underpin traders' 65.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not outpoll its rivals.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
音量
$468終了日
2027/08/01マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion, faces two conflicting measures—Propositions 41 and 42—explicitly designed to nullify it.** Under state rules, if multiple initiatives pass, the one receiving the most votes prevails. Recent Public Policy Institute of California polling shows Prop 40 with narrow 52% support alongside similar backing for the opposing measures, while opponents backed by figures such as Sergey Brin have committed over $100 million to advertising and signature efforts. Governor Gavin Newsom and several major labor and business groups have also opposed the tax. These dynamics, combined with the November 3, 2026 election timeline and historical patterns for closely contested California ballot measures, underpin traders' 65.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not outpoll its rivals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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