Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to drive trader consensus toward the 20-39 ship range for Strait of Hormuz transits in the week of May 11, with that outcome priced at a 60.5% implied probability. Shipping data from early May show daily passages falling to single digits amid naval blockades, Iranian control assertions, and limited U.S. escort operations under initiatives like Project Freedom, sharply below the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 vessels per day. These constraints have stranded hundreds of tankers and container ships, tightening global energy supply chains and supporting elevated oil prices. Recent ceasefire signals and modest upticks to 9-10 daily transits on May 3-4 have tempered expectations for a rapid rebound, while persistent safety risks keep higher-volume outcomes below 5% probability. Market participants are closely watching any further naval de-escalation ahead of mid-May resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日20-39 63%
40-59 29%
<20 4.5%
60-79 4.3%
$79,693 Vol.
$79,693 Vol.
2026/05/17
<20
5%
20-39
63%
40-59
29%
60-79
4%
80+
1%
20-39 63%
40-59 29%
<20 4.5%
60-79 4.3%
$79,693 Vol.
$79,693 Vol.
2026/05/17
<20
$28,269 Vol.
5%
20-39
$13,416 Vol.
63%
40-59
$14,564 Vol.
29%
60-79
$12,064 Vol.
4%
80+
$11,513 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to drive trader consensus toward the 20-39 ship range for Strait of Hormuz transits in the week of May 11, with that outcome priced at a 60.5% implied probability. Shipping data from early May show daily passages falling to single digits amid naval blockades, Iranian control assertions, and limited U.S. escort operations under initiatives like Project Freedom, sharply below the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 vessels per day. These constraints have stranded hundreds of tankers and container ships, tightening global energy supply chains and supporting elevated oil prices. Recent ceasefire signals and modest upticks to 9-10 daily transits on May 3-4 have tempered expectations for a rapid rebound, while persistent safety risks keep higher-volume outcomes below 5% probability. Market participants are closely watching any further naval de-escalation ahead of mid-May resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
音量
$79,693終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to drive trader consensus toward the 20-39 ship range for Strait of Hormuz transits in the week of May 11, with that outcome priced at a 60.5% implied probability. Shipping data from early May show daily passages falling to single digits amid naval blockades, Iranian control assertions, and limited U.S. escort operations under initiatives like Project Freedom, sharply below the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 vessels per day. These constraints have stranded hundreds of tankers and container ships, tightening global energy supply chains and supporting elevated oil prices. Recent ceasefire signals and modest upticks to 9-10 daily transits on May 3-4 have tempered expectations for a rapid rebound, while persistent safety risks keep higher-volume outcomes below 5% probability. Market participants are closely watching any further naval de-escalation ahead of mid-May resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$79,693終了日
2026/05/17マーケット開始日
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to drive trader consensus toward the 20-39 ship range for Strait of Hormuz transits in the week of May 11, with that outcome priced at a 60.5% implied probability. Shipping data from early May show daily passages falling to single digits amid naval blockades, Iranian control assertions, and limited U.S. escort operations under initiatives like Project Freedom, sharply below the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 vessels per day. These constraints have stranded hundreds of tankers and container ships, tightening global energy supply chains and supporting elevated oil prices. Recent ceasefire signals and modest upticks to 9-10 daily transits on May 3-4 have tempered expectations for a rapid rebound, while persistent safety risks keep higher-volume outcomes below 5% probability. Market participants are closely watching any further naval de-escalation ahead of mid-May resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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