Iran’s political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession amid a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline parliamentarians and groups such as the Paydari Front have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s authority, limiting the new supreme leader’s visibility and role, sidelining parliament, and pursuing negotiations that contradict revolutionary principles. Iranian authorities have conducted recent arrests of alleged foreign-backed operatives tied to January protests, framing them as part of ongoing destabilization efforts. Leadership has consolidated around military and clerical hardliners who prioritize confrontation and internal security, while economic pressures and potential renewed external actions remain key variables that could influence power dynamics and market assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,123,321 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
9%
$2,123,321 Vol.
12月31日
$82,095 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession amid a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline parliamentarians and groups such as the Paydari Front have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s authority, limiting the new supreme leader’s visibility and role, sidelining parliament, and pursuing negotiations that contradict revolutionary principles. Iranian authorities have conducted recent arrests of alleged foreign-backed operatives tied to January protests, framing them as part of ongoing destabilization efforts. Leadership has consolidated around military and clerical hardliners who prioritize confrontation and internal security, while economic pressures and potential renewed external actions remain key variables that could influence power dynamics and market assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
音量
$2,123,321終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession amid a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline parliamentarians and groups such as the Paydari Front have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s authority, limiting the new supreme leader’s visibility and role, sidelining parliament, and pursuing negotiations that contradict revolutionary principles. Iranian authorities have conducted recent arrests of alleged foreign-backed operatives tied to January protests, framing them as part of ongoing destabilization efforts. Leadership has consolidated around military and clerical hardliners who prioritize confrontation and internal security, while economic pressures and potential renewed external actions remain key variables that could influence power dynamics and market assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,123,321終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Iran’s political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession amid a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline parliamentarians and groups such as the Paydari Front have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” by elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s authority, limiting the new supreme leader’s visibility and role, sidelining parliament, and pursuing negotiations that contradict revolutionary principles. Iranian authorities have conducted recent arrests of alleged foreign-backed operatives tied to January protests, framing them as part of ongoing destabilization efforts. Leadership has consolidated around military and clerical hardliners who prioritize confrontation and internal security, while economic pressures and potential renewed external actions remain key variables that could influence power dynamics and market assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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