US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains broadly unchanged after US and Israeli airstrikes earlier this year, with limited new damage to key facilities like Natanz and Fordow, and no evidence of accelerated weaponization despite 60% uranium enrichment stocks. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, now in deadlock over highly enriched uranium disposition, saw Iran propose pausing enrichment or diluting stockpiles, reflecting diplomatic pressures amid war degradation of missile and nuclear infrastructure. IAEA safeguards reports confirm compliance gaps but no diversion to bombs, anchoring trader consensus at 91% "No" probability of a testable nuclear device before 2027—though late escalations, regime shifts, or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$602,047 Vol.
$602,047 Vol.
はい
$602,047 Vol.
$602,047 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains broadly unchanged after US and Israeli airstrikes earlier this year, with limited new damage to key facilities like Natanz and Fordow, and no evidence of accelerated weaponization despite 60% uranium enrichment stocks. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, now in deadlock over highly enriched uranium disposition, saw Iran propose pausing enrichment or diluting stockpiles, reflecting diplomatic pressures amid war degradation of missile and nuclear infrastructure. IAEA safeguards reports confirm compliance gaps but no diversion to bombs, anchoring trader consensus at 91% "No" probability of a testable nuclear device before 2027—though late escalations, regime shifts, or covert advances could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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