Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan amid the broader conflict that began in late February. Recent proposals exchanged in early May have been rejected by both sides, with U.S. officials citing unacceptable terms on nuclear enrichment limits, removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian negotiators have pushed for sanctions relief, force withdrawals, and a broader end to hostilities including related fronts in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized coordination with Washington on core demands such as dismantling enrichment capabilities and curbing proxy support. These developments, alongside the continued U.S. naval blockade and intermittent exchanges, represent the primary drivers shaping trader assessments of whether a permanent peace agreement can be finalized within any specified timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$936,891 Vol.
2026/05/31
May 31
3%
6月30日
13%
$936,891 Vol.
May 31
$281,744 Vol.
3%
6月30日
$340,547 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan amid the broader conflict that began in late February. Recent proposals exchanged in early May have been rejected by both sides, with U.S. officials citing unacceptable terms on nuclear enrichment limits, removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian negotiators have pushed for sanctions relief, force withdrawals, and a broader end to hostilities including related fronts in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized coordination with Washington on core demands such as dismantling enrichment capabilities and curbing proxy support. These developments, alongside the continued U.S. naval blockade and intermittent exchanges, represent the primary drivers shaping trader assessments of whether a permanent peace agreement can be finalized within any specified timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
音量
$936,891終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan amid the broader conflict that began in late February. Recent proposals exchanged in early May have been rejected by both sides, with U.S. officials citing unacceptable terms on nuclear enrichment limits, removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian negotiators have pushed for sanctions relief, force withdrawals, and a broader end to hostilities including related fronts in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized coordination with Washington on core demands such as dismantling enrichment capabilities and curbing proxy support. These developments, alongside the continued U.S. naval blockade and intermittent exchanges, represent the primary drivers shaping trader assessments of whether a permanent peace agreement can be finalized within any specified timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$936,891終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran remain centered on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan amid the broader conflict that began in late February. Recent proposals exchanged in early May have been rejected by both sides, with U.S. officials citing unacceptable terms on nuclear enrichment limits, removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian negotiators have pushed for sanctions relief, force withdrawals, and a broader end to hostilities including related fronts in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized coordination with Washington on core demands such as dismantling enrichment capabilities and curbing proxy support. These developments, alongside the continued U.S. naval blockade and intermittent exchanges, represent the primary drivers shaping trader assessments of whether a permanent peace agreement can be finalized within any specified timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問