Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
20°C 88%
18°C 8%
19°C 3%
17℃ <1%
新規
新規
2026/05/15
14°C以下
<1%
15°C
<1%
16℃
<1%
17℃
<1%
18°C
8%
19°C
10%
20°C
88%
20°C 88%
18°C 8%
19°C 3%
17℃ <1%
新規
新規
2026/05/15
14°C以下
$961 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$882 Vol.
<1%
16℃
$812 Vol.
<1%
17℃
$627 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$498 Vol.
8%
19°C
$442 Vol.
10%
20°C
$497 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
音量
$8,788終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$8,788終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to a 20°C lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 15, driven by the latest short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration projecting an overnight minimum of 20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southeast winds under 12 km/h. These factors inhibit radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the market's resolution site. Yesterday's confirmed 20°C low continues a warm mid-May pattern 2–3°C above the 17–19°C climatological average, bolstered by a stable high-pressure ridge over eastern China. A realistic challenge would require unexpected sky clearing overnight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to 19°C; hourly observations from official stations will clarify as dawn approaches.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問