Global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs, converge on a 19°C nocturnal minimum for Shanghai on May 16, underpinning the market's 99% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable springtime high pressure, light southeast winds under 12 km/h, and overcast skies suppress radiative cooling while limiting cold-air advection, anchoring overnight lows near the mid-May climatological average of 18–20°C at official stations such as Shanghai Pudong. Surface observations from recent nights confirm this narrow range. Resolution could shift only if an unforecasted clearing allows stronger radiative cooling or an unexpected trough introduces cooler maritime air, though current model spread remains minimal through the overnight window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月16日の上海の最低気温は?
19℃ 99.0%
18°C 2.1%
17℃ <1%
16℃ <1%
$35,057 Vol.
$35,057 Vol.
14℃以下
<1%
15℃
<1%
16℃
<1%
17℃
<1%
18°C
2%
19℃
99%
20℃
<1%
21°C
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
<1%
24℃以上
<1%
19℃ 99.0%
18°C 2.1%
17℃ <1%
16℃ <1%
$35,057 Vol.
$35,057 Vol.
14℃以下
<1%
15℃
<1%
16℃
<1%
17℃
<1%
18°C
2%
19℃
99%
20℃
<1%
21°C
<1%
22℃
<1%
23°C
<1%
24℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs, converge on a 19°C nocturnal minimum for Shanghai on May 16, underpinning the market's 99% implied probability for that exact outcome. Stable springtime high pressure, light southeast winds under 12 km/h, and overcast skies suppress radiative cooling while limiting cold-air advection, anchoring overnight lows near the mid-May climatological average of 18–20°C at official stations such as Shanghai Pudong. Surface observations from recent nights confirm this narrow range. Resolution could shift only if an unforecasted clearing allows stronger radiative cooling or an unexpected trough introduces cooler maritime air, though current model spread remains minimal through the overnight window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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