**Clear skies and light southerly winds under a weakening high-pressure system centered over northern Europe are driving overnight radiative cooling in Warsaw, positioning the minimum temperature on August 30 around 11–13°C.** Official model guidance and ensemble forecasts from sources including GFS and regional European models show the overnight low occurring between roughly 03:00–07:00 local time on the 30th, with dew points near 12–14°C and minimal cloud cover limiting downward longwave radiation. A shift toward cooler polar maritime air is underway as the dominant anticyclone over Finland and Russia weakens and drifts eastward, but steering patterns and light winds (generally under 3 m/s) favor efficient surface cooling without significant mixing. Recent 24–48 hour updates from meteorological agencies confirm mostly clear conditions persisting through the night, with daytime highs near 25–27°C consistent with late-summer norms. This setup places the 11°C outcome at the highest market-implied probability (45%), followed closely by 13°C (32%) and 12°C (28.5%), reflecting trader consensus on the precise balance between clear-sky cooling and residual warmth from the prior air mass. Updated model runs and any further clearing or wind shifts in the final hours before midnight on the 29th remain the key variables that could nudge the minimum within this narrow range.