Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models positions 12°C as the leading implied probability for Wellington’s lowest temperature on August 22 because overnight conditions feature light northerly flow with limited radiational cooling, yielding minimums near 11–12°C under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with August climatology of 9°C average lows while current sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns suppress stronger southerly outbreaks that could drop readings to 10°C or below. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range between 10–12°C outcomes most heavily, reflecting consensus on modest diurnal swings rather than anomalous cold advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the early morning will provide the final data for market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月22日のウェリントンの最低気温は?
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
-
10°C
29%
11°C
33%
12°C
62%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
-
10°C
29%
11°C
33%
12°C
62%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast guidance from MetService and international models positions 12°C as the leading implied probability for Wellington’s lowest temperature on August 22 because overnight conditions feature light northerly flow with limited radiational cooling, yielding minimums near 11–12°C under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with August climatology of 9°C average lows while current sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns suppress stronger southerly outbreaks that could drop readings to 10°C or below. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range between 10–12°C outcomes most heavily, reflecting consensus on modest diurnal swings rather than anomalous cold advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the early morning will provide the final data for market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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