Missouri's 8th Congressional District, with its R+27 Cook PVI and incumbent Rep. Jason Smith's commanding 76% victory margin in 2024, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Smith filed for reelection in March 2026, leveraging his Ways and Means Committee chairmanship despite a contested August 4 GOP primary against challengers including Chris Reichard and Clayton Harbison. Democrats, led by candidates like Frank Barnitz, face steep barriers in this rural conservative stronghold absent national polling shifts. While odds exceed 90%, a GOP primary upset yielding a weak nominee, major scandal, legal challenges, or unforeseen health issues could introduce volatility ahead of early voting and election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$29,190 Vol.
$29,190 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$29,190 Vol.
$29,190 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$18,978 Vol.
93%
民主党
$10,212 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 8th Congressional District, with its R+27 Cook PVI and incumbent Rep. Jason Smith's commanding 76% victory margin in 2024, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Smith filed for reelection in March 2026, leveraging his Ways and Means Committee chairmanship despite a contested August 4 GOP primary against challengers including Chris Reichard and Clayton Harbison. Democrats, led by candidates like Frank Barnitz, face steep barriers in this rural conservative stronghold absent national polling shifts. While odds exceed 90%, a GOP primary upset yielding a weak nominee, major scandal, legal challenges, or unforeseen health issues could introduce volatility ahead of early voting and election night.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$29,190終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 8th Congressional District, with its R+27 Cook PVI and incumbent Rep. Jason Smith's commanding 76% victory margin in 2024, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Smith filed for reelection in March 2026, leveraging his Ways and Means Committee chairmanship despite a contested August 4 GOP primary against challengers including Chris Reichard and Clayton Harbison. Democrats, led by candidates like Frank Barnitz, face steep barriers in this rural conservative stronghold absent national polling shifts. While odds exceed 90%, a GOP primary upset yielding a weak nominee, major scandal, legal challenges, or unforeseen health issues could introduce volatility ahead of early voting and election night.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$29,190終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 8th Congressional District, with its R+27 Cook PVI and incumbent Rep. Jason Smith's commanding 76% victory margin in 2024, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Republican winner in the November 3 general election. Smith filed for reelection in March 2026, leveraging his Ways and Means Committee chairmanship despite a contested August 4 GOP primary against challengers including Chris Reichard and Clayton Harbison. Democrats, led by candidates like Frank Barnitz, face steep barriers in this rural conservative stronghold absent national polling shifts. While odds exceed 90%, a GOP primary upset yielding a weak nominee, major scandal, legal challenges, or unforeseen health issues could introduce volatility ahead of early voting and election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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