The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations and supporting the strong trader consensus for no change by September 30. Recent economic data showing resilient first-half GDP growth, stable interbank liquidity, and an emphasis on targeted credit tools over broad easing have reduced pressure for adjustments, while a lowered official growth target for the year has tempered urgency for stimulus. Analysts increasingly project a policy pause for the remainder of 2026 amid uneven recovery signals and external considerations, with only limited scope for incremental reserve requirement ratio moves rather than outright rate shifts. This positioning keeps the probability of an increase negligible and a decrease low unless unexpected weakness emerges in upcoming data releases before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 87%
引き下げ 13%
引き上げ 1.0%
$47,301 Vol.
$47,301 Vol.
2026/09/30
引き上げ
1%
変更なし
87%
引き下げ
13%
変更なし 87%
引き下げ 13%
引き上げ 1.0%
$47,301 Vol.
$47,301 Vol.
2026/09/30
引き上げ
$4,702 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$21,525 Vol.
87%
引き下げ
$21,074 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations and supporting the strong trader consensus for no change by September 30. Recent economic data showing resilient first-half GDP growth, stable interbank liquidity, and an emphasis on targeted credit tools over broad easing have reduced pressure for adjustments, while a lowered official growth target for the year has tempered urgency for stimulus. Analysts increasingly project a policy pause for the remainder of 2026 amid uneven recovery signals and external considerations, with only limited scope for incremental reserve requirement ratio moves rather than outright rate shifts. This positioning keeps the probability of an increase negligible and a decrease low unless unexpected weakness emerges in upcoming data releases before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ET
音量
$47,301終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations and supporting the strong trader consensus for no change by September 30. Recent economic data showing resilient first-half GDP growth, stable interbank liquidity, and an emphasis on targeted credit tools over broad easing have reduced pressure for adjustments, while a lowered official growth target for the year has tempered urgency for stimulus. Analysts increasingly project a policy pause for the remainder of 2026 amid uneven recovery signals and external considerations, with only limited scope for incremental reserve requirement ratio moves rather than outright rate shifts. This positioning keeps the probability of an increase negligible and a decrease low unless unexpected weakness emerges in upcoming data releases before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
音量
$47,301終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The People's Bank of China has held its benchmark one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50% for 14 consecutive months through July 2026, aligning with market expectations and supporting the strong trader consensus for no change by September 30. Recent economic data showing resilient first-half GDP growth, stable interbank liquidity, and an emphasis on targeted credit tools over broad easing have reduced pressure for adjustments, while a lowered official growth target for the year has tempered urgency for stimulus. Analysts increasingly project a policy pause for the remainder of 2026 amid uneven recovery signals and external considerations, with only limited scope for incremental reserve requirement ratio moves rather than outright rate shifts. This positioning keeps the probability of an increase negligible and a decrease low unless unexpected weakness emerges in upcoming data releases before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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