Thailand and Cambodia have maintained a fragile ceasefire since late December 2025 after intense border clashes that included Thai airstrikes on Cambodian positions, artillery exchanges, and ground operations near contested sites such as the Ta Muen Thom and Preah Vihear temples. Diplomatic mediation by Malaysia, ASEAN, and the United States helped secure the December agreement, which requires direct military communication and de-escalation measures, though isolated incidents involving drones, landmines, and mortar fire have prompted accusations from both sides. Traders assign low probability to a Thai-initiated strike by June 30, 2026, reflecting the current hold on major hostilities and the absence of new escalatory triggers in the first half of 2026. Scheduled border talks and international monitoring could further reduce risks if they produce verifiable troop withdrawals or demarcation progress.