Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current Senate vice president, holds a 69.5% market-implied probability for first place in the Tocantins Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 25-35 points in stimulated scenarios through August 2026 and strong name recognition ahead of the October 4 vote. Recent mid-August candidate registrations and asset declarations have clarified a fragmented field, leaving Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) as the clearest challenger at 17% in trader pricing while others such as Gaguim, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges trail further behind. High undecided shares and the multi-candidate dynamics for the state's two seats introduce some uncertainty, yet surveys show limited momentum shifts for rivals. Trader consensus reflects these incumbency and survey trends without major late-breaking developments altering the positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Eduardo Gomes 70%
Alexandre Guimarães 16.3%
Gaguim 8.5%
Ronaldo Dimas 4.3%
$13,944 Vol.
$13,944 Vol.
2026/10/04
Eduardo Gomes
70%
Alexandre Guimarães
16%
Gaguim
9%
Ronaldo Dimas
4%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
4%
Osvany Luz
4%
Professor Osvaldo
4%
Paulo Mourão
4%
Fábio Ribeiro
3%
Nilton Santos
2%
Eli Borges
1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
<1%
Eduardo Gomes 70%
Alexandre Guimarães 16.3%
Gaguim 8.5%
Ronaldo Dimas 4.3%
$13,944 Vol.
$13,944 Vol.
2026/10/04
Eduardo Gomes
$11,773 Vol.
70%
Alexandre Guimarães
$339 Vol.
16%
Gaguim
$217 Vol.
9%
Ronaldo Dimas
$186 Vol.
4%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$154 Vol.
4%
Osvany Luz
$136 Vol.
4%
Professor Osvaldo
$154 Vol.
4%
Paulo Mourão
$154 Vol.
4%
Fábio Ribeiro
$154 Vol.
3%
Nilton Santos
$173 Vol.
2%
Eli Borges
$164 Vol.
1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$134 Vol.
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$204 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current Senate vice president, holds a 69.5% market-implied probability for first place in the Tocantins Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 25-35 points in stimulated scenarios through August 2026 and strong name recognition ahead of the October 4 vote. Recent mid-August candidate registrations and asset declarations have clarified a fragmented field, leaving Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) as the clearest challenger at 17% in trader pricing while others such as Gaguim, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges trail further behind. High undecided shares and the multi-candidate dynamics for the state's two seats introduce some uncertainty, yet surveys show limited momentum shifts for rivals. Trader consensus reflects these incumbency and survey trends without major late-breaking developments altering the positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
音量
$13,944終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current Senate vice president, holds a 69.5% market-implied probability for first place in the Tocantins Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 25-35 points in stimulated scenarios through August 2026 and strong name recognition ahead of the October 4 vote. Recent mid-August candidate registrations and asset declarations have clarified a fragmented field, leaving Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) as the clearest challenger at 17% in trader pricing while others such as Gaguim, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges trail further behind. High undecided shares and the multi-candidate dynamics for the state's two seats introduce some uncertainty, yet surveys show limited momentum shifts for rivals. Trader consensus reflects these incumbency and survey trends without major late-breaking developments altering the positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$13,944終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current Senate vice president, holds a 69.5% market-implied probability for first place in the Tocantins Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 25-35 points in stimulated scenarios through August 2026 and strong name recognition ahead of the October 4 vote. Recent mid-August candidate registrations and asset declarations have clarified a fragmented field, leaving Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) as the clearest challenger at 17% in trader pricing while others such as Gaguim, Ronaldo Dimas, and Eli Borges trail further behind. High undecided shares and the multi-candidate dynamics for the state's two seats introduce some uncertainty, yet surveys show limited momentum shifts for rivals. Trader consensus reflects these incumbency and survey trends without major late-breaking developments altering the positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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