Trader consensus on Rep. Tony Gonzales facing formal criminal charges or indictment by June 30 reflects a closely balanced assessment following his April 14 resignation from Congress, which ended the House Ethics Committee probe into allegations of sexual misconduct with staffers—including explicit text messages to subordinates—without a public criminal referral. No federal DOJ or Texas state investigations have been announced in the past month, tempering yes bets despite ongoing media scrutiny and the scandal's recency, while no-case sentiment hinges on typical hurdles for prosecuting consensual adult relationships absent aggravating factors like coercion. Odds could shift toward yes on a special counsel appointment or leaked subpoenas; toward no if prosecutors cite insufficient evidence by the deadline.