The TX-23 open seat, vacated after incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid a personal scandal that derailed his renomination bid, features Republican nominee Brandon Herrera against Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and consistent polling margins of 4–6 points for the GOP through mid-2026 underpin the 67% Republican consensus. Herrera’s primary victory and stronger fundraising have solidified his position, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s August 5 addition of the seat to its target list has narrowed the gap by increasing Democratic visibility in this sprawling, Hispanic-majority district. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as Likely Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader probabilities ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$35,084 Vol.
$35,084 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
67%
民主党
34%
$35,084 Vol.
$35,084 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$20,275 Vol.
67%
民主党
$14,808 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The TX-23 open seat, vacated after incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid a personal scandal that derailed his renomination bid, features Republican nominee Brandon Herrera against Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and consistent polling margins of 4–6 points for the GOP through mid-2026 underpin the 67% Republican consensus. Herrera’s primary victory and stronger fundraising have solidified his position, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s August 5 addition of the seat to its target list has narrowed the gap by increasing Democratic visibility in this sprawling, Hispanic-majority district. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as Likely Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader probabilities ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$35,084終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The TX-23 open seat, vacated after incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid a personal scandal that derailed his renomination bid, features Republican nominee Brandon Herrera against Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and consistent polling margins of 4–6 points for the GOP through mid-2026 underpin the 67% Republican consensus. Herrera’s primary victory and stronger fundraising have solidified his position, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s August 5 addition of the seat to its target list has narrowed the gap by increasing Democratic visibility in this sprawling, Hispanic-majority district. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as Likely Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader probabilities ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$35,084終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The TX-23 open seat, vacated after incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales resigned in April 2026 amid a personal scandal that derailed his renomination bid, features Republican nominee Brandon Herrera against Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and consistent polling margins of 4–6 points for the GOP through mid-2026 underpin the 67% Republican consensus. Herrera’s primary victory and stronger fundraising have solidified his position, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s August 5 addition of the seat to its target list has narrowed the gap by increasing Democratic visibility in this sprawling, Hispanic-majority district. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify the race as Likely Republican, reflecting the structural advantages that continue to shape trader probabilities ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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