Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy holds a commanding position in New York’s 23rd congressional district, where the partisan voter index favors Republicans by 10 points and the area supported Trump by 21 points in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with Langworthy’s unchallenged June 23 primary and substantial fundraising lead, anchors trader consensus on an 80.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A crowded Democratic primary field featuring Aaron Gies, Kevin Stocker, Stephen Collins, and Jeff Rayner remains fragmented with limited resources, offering no immediate path to competitiveness. No major polling or campaign shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
81%
民主党
16%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$4,555 Vol.
81%
民主党
$2,201 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy holds a commanding position in New York’s 23rd congressional district, where the partisan voter index favors Republicans by 10 points and the area supported Trump by 21 points in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with Langworthy’s unchallenged June 23 primary and substantial fundraising lead, anchors trader consensus on an 80.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A crowded Democratic primary field featuring Aaron Gies, Kevin Stocker, Stephen Collins, and Jeff Rayner remains fragmented with limited resources, offering no immediate path to competitiveness. No major polling or campaign shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$6,757終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy holds a commanding position in New York’s 23rd congressional district, where the partisan voter index favors Republicans by 10 points and the area supported Trump by 21 points in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with Langworthy’s unchallenged June 23 primary and substantial fundraising lead, anchors trader consensus on an 80.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A crowded Democratic primary field featuring Aaron Gies, Kevin Stocker, Stephen Collins, and Jeff Rayner remains fragmented with limited resources, offering no immediate path to competitiveness. No major polling or campaign shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,757終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy holds a commanding position in New York’s 23rd congressional district, where the partisan voter index favors Republicans by 10 points and the area supported Trump by 21 points in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with Langworthy’s unchallenged June 23 primary and substantial fundraising lead, anchors trader consensus on an 80.5 percent probability for the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A crowded Democratic primary field featuring Aaron Gies, Kevin Stocker, Stephen Collins, and Jeff Rayner remains fragmented with limited resources, offering no immediate path to competitiveness. No major polling or campaign shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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