The open IA-04 seat, vacated by Rep. Randy Feenstra's run for governor, sits in a northwest Iowa district rated R+15 by partisan voting index metrics and consistently delivers Republican margins above 30 points in recent cycles. With the Republican primary on June 2 featuring a single major contender in Chris McGowan after other filings withdrew, the party's nominee enters the November general election holding structural advantages in rural conservative counties, evangelical turnout, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Multiple Democratic primary candidates including Dave Dawson remain in the field, yet historical patterns and current polling show no path to competitiveness absent a major GOP scandal or unexpected national shift. Trader consensus at 92 percent Republican reflects these durable district fundamentals rather than any single event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$4,946 Vol.
92%
民主党
$4,946 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open IA-04 seat, vacated by Rep. Randy Feenstra's run for governor, sits in a northwest Iowa district rated R+15 by partisan voting index metrics and consistently delivers Republican margins above 30 points in recent cycles. With the Republican primary on June 2 featuring a single major contender in Chris McGowan after other filings withdrew, the party's nominee enters the November general election holding structural advantages in rural conservative counties, evangelical turnout, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Multiple Democratic primary candidates including Dave Dawson remain in the field, yet historical patterns and current polling show no path to competitiveness absent a major GOP scandal or unexpected national shift. Trader consensus at 92 percent Republican reflects these durable district fundamentals rather than any single event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$9,892終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open IA-04 seat, vacated by Rep. Randy Feenstra's run for governor, sits in a northwest Iowa district rated R+15 by partisan voting index metrics and consistently delivers Republican margins above 30 points in recent cycles. With the Republican primary on June 2 featuring a single major contender in Chris McGowan after other filings withdrew, the party's nominee enters the November general election holding structural advantages in rural conservative counties, evangelical turnout, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Multiple Democratic primary candidates including Dave Dawson remain in the field, yet historical patterns and current polling show no path to competitiveness absent a major GOP scandal or unexpected national shift. Trader consensus at 92 percent Republican reflects these durable district fundamentals rather than any single event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,892終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open IA-04 seat, vacated by Rep. Randy Feenstra's run for governor, sits in a northwest Iowa district rated R+15 by partisan voting index metrics and consistently delivers Republican margins above 30 points in recent cycles. With the Republican primary on June 2 featuring a single major contender in Chris McGowan after other filings withdrew, the party's nominee enters the November general election holding structural advantages in rural conservative counties, evangelical turnout, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Multiple Democratic primary candidates including Dave Dawson remain in the field, yet historical patterns and current polling show no path to competitiveness absent a major GOP scandal or unexpected national shift. Trader consensus at 92 percent Republican reflects these durable district fundamentals rather than any single event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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