The Democratic incumbent Morgan McGarvey holds a commanding position in Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and the party’s sole hold on any Kentucky House seat. McGarvey’s prior general election margins, including a 62% share in 2024, combined with the May 2026 Democratic primary consolidation and the Republican primary outcome favoring challenger Maria Teresa Rodriguez, reinforce trader consensus around high implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could narrow the margin or alter the outcome include unusually low turnout among core voting blocs, late-cycle national political shifts affecting down-ballot races, or unforeseen developments in candidate health or campaign resources between now and the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,577 Vol.
$30,577 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$30,577 Vol.
$30,577 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$17,336 Vol.
95%
共和党
$13,240 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic incumbent Morgan McGarvey holds a commanding position in Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and the party’s sole hold on any Kentucky House seat. McGarvey’s prior general election margins, including a 62% share in 2024, combined with the May 2026 Democratic primary consolidation and the Republican primary outcome favoring challenger Maria Teresa Rodriguez, reinforce trader consensus around high implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could narrow the margin or alter the outcome include unusually low turnout among core voting blocs, late-cycle national political shifts affecting down-ballot races, or unforeseen developments in candidate health or campaign resources between now and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$30,577終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic incumbent Morgan McGarvey holds a commanding position in Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and the party’s sole hold on any Kentucky House seat. McGarvey’s prior general election margins, including a 62% share in 2024, combined with the May 2026 Democratic primary consolidation and the Republican primary outcome favoring challenger Maria Teresa Rodriguez, reinforce trader consensus around high implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could narrow the margin or alter the outcome include unusually low turnout among core voting blocs, late-cycle national political shifts affecting down-ballot races, or unforeseen developments in candidate health or campaign resources between now and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,577終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic incumbent Morgan McGarvey holds a commanding position in Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district due to its consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and the party’s sole hold on any Kentucky House seat. McGarvey’s prior general election margins, including a 62% share in 2024, combined with the May 2026 Democratic primary consolidation and the Republican primary outcome favoring challenger Maria Teresa Rodriguez, reinforce trader consensus around high implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could narrow the margin or alter the outcome include unusually low turnout among core voting blocs, late-cycle national political shifts affecting down-ballot races, or unforeseen developments in candidate health or campaign resources between now and the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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