Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's commanding trader consensus at 93.5% in the NY-25 House race reflects the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10), his unblemished reelection record—including 60.8% in 2024—and superior fundraising ($629,000 cash on hand vs. presumptive Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre's $16,000). Recent candidate filings ahead of the June 23 primaries confirm McIntyre as the sole GOP contender, with no major shifts in the past month amid stable district fundamentals around Rochester and suburbs. Challenges would require a damaging Morelle scandal, weak Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the 134th-most-Democratic seat's barriers before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,605 Vol.
$24,605 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$24,605 Vol.
$24,605 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,884 Vol.
94%
共和党
$9,721 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's commanding trader consensus at 93.5% in the NY-25 House race reflects the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10), his unblemished reelection record—including 60.8% in 2024—and superior fundraising ($629,000 cash on hand vs. presumptive Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre's $16,000). Recent candidate filings ahead of the June 23 primaries confirm McIntyre as the sole GOP contender, with no major shifts in the past month amid stable district fundamentals around Rochester and suburbs. Challenges would require a damaging Morelle scandal, weak Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the 134th-most-Democratic seat's barriers before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$24,605終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's commanding trader consensus at 93.5% in the NY-25 House race reflects the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10), his unblemished reelection record—including 60.8% in 2024—and superior fundraising ($629,000 cash on hand vs. presumptive Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre's $16,000). Recent candidate filings ahead of the June 23 primaries confirm McIntyre as the sole GOP contender, with no major shifts in the past month amid stable district fundamentals around Rochester and suburbs. Challenges would require a damaging Morelle scandal, weak Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the 134th-most-Democratic seat's barriers before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$24,605終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's commanding trader consensus at 93.5% in the NY-25 House race reflects the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+10), his unblemished reelection record—including 60.8% in 2024—and superior fundraising ($629,000 cash on hand vs. presumptive Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre's $16,000). Recent candidate filings ahead of the June 23 primaries confirm McIntyre as the sole GOP contender, with no major shifts in the past month amid stable district fundamentals around Rochester and suburbs. Challenges would require a damaging Morelle scandal, weak Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, or a national Republican midterm wave overcoming the 134th-most-Democratic seat's barriers before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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