Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed June 2 primary path and $1.6 million fundraising haul—dwarfing Democratic challengers Sam Lux ($8,000) and Brian Miller ($15,000)—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP victory in Montana's 2nd Congressional District, a Safe Republican seat with R+15 partisan lean rooted in eastern Montana's conservative geography around Billings. Downing's 2024 32-point win and endorsements from Donald Trump and AIPAC reinforce this positioning, amid analyses deeming the race non-competitive due to Democrats' minimal resources and lack of voter base. The June 2 Democratic primary and November 3 general election loom, but odds reflect deep structural barriers. Realistic challenges include a major Downing scandal, national Democratic midterm wave, or Independent Michael Eisenhauer's self-funded $208,000 bid siphoning GOP votes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,411 Vol.
93%
民主党
$2,914 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed June 2 primary path and $1.6 million fundraising haul—dwarfing Democratic challengers Sam Lux ($8,000) and Brian Miller ($15,000)—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP victory in Montana's 2nd Congressional District, a Safe Republican seat with R+15 partisan lean rooted in eastern Montana's conservative geography around Billings. Downing's 2024 32-point win and endorsements from Donald Trump and AIPAC reinforce this positioning, amid analyses deeming the race non-competitive due to Democrats' minimal resources and lack of voter base. The June 2 Democratic primary and November 3 general election loom, but odds reflect deep structural barriers. Realistic challenges include a major Downing scandal, national Democratic midterm wave, or Independent Michael Eisenhauer's self-funded $208,000 bid siphoning GOP votes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$9,324終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed June 2 primary path and $1.6 million fundraising haul—dwarfing Democratic challengers Sam Lux ($8,000) and Brian Miller ($15,000)—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP victory in Montana's 2nd Congressional District, a Safe Republican seat with R+15 partisan lean rooted in eastern Montana's conservative geography around Billings. Downing's 2024 32-point win and endorsements from Donald Trump and AIPAC reinforce this positioning, amid analyses deeming the race non-competitive due to Democrats' minimal resources and lack of voter base. The June 2 Democratic primary and November 3 general election loom, but odds reflect deep structural barriers. Realistic challenges include a major Downing scandal, national Democratic midterm wave, or Independent Michael Eisenhauer's self-funded $208,000 bid siphoning GOP votes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,324終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's unopposed June 2 primary path and $1.6 million fundraising haul—dwarfing Democratic challengers Sam Lux ($8,000) and Brian Miller ($15,000)—anchor trader consensus at 92.5% for a GOP victory in Montana's 2nd Congressional District, a Safe Republican seat with R+15 partisan lean rooted in eastern Montana's conservative geography around Billings. Downing's 2024 32-point win and endorsements from Donald Trump and AIPAC reinforce this positioning, amid analyses deeming the race non-competitive due to Democrats' minimal resources and lack of voter base. The June 2 Democratic primary and November 3 general election loom, but odds reflect deep structural barriers. Realistic challenges include a major Downing scandal, national Democratic midterm wave, or Independent Michael Eisenhauer's self-funded $208,000 bid siphoning GOP votes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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