California's 51st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and consistent performance in recent cycles, including the incumbent's prior victories. Sara Jacobs secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with nearly 58 percent of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Ricardo Cabrera in the November general election. High Democratic voter registration, urban and suburban demographics centered in San Diego County, and Jacobs's established fundraising and visibility contribute to the market's 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic outcome. A narrow Republican path would require an unprecedented national wave, late-cycle scandal, or major turnout anomaly to overcome the structural advantages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,177 Vol.
$32,177 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$32,177 Vol.
$32,177 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$17,923 Vol.
95%
共和党
$14,253 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 51st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and consistent performance in recent cycles, including the incumbent's prior victories. Sara Jacobs secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with nearly 58 percent of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Ricardo Cabrera in the November general election. High Democratic voter registration, urban and suburban demographics centered in San Diego County, and Jacobs's established fundraising and visibility contribute to the market's 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic outcome. A narrow Republican path would require an unprecedented national wave, late-cycle scandal, or major turnout anomaly to overcome the structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$32,177終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 51st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and consistent performance in recent cycles, including the incumbent's prior victories. Sara Jacobs secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with nearly 58 percent of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Ricardo Cabrera in the November general election. High Democratic voter registration, urban and suburban demographics centered in San Diego County, and Jacobs's established fundraising and visibility contribute to the market's 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic outcome. A narrow Republican path would require an unprecedented national wave, late-cycle scandal, or major turnout anomaly to overcome the structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,177終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 51st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and consistent performance in recent cycles, including the incumbent's prior victories. Sara Jacobs secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with nearly 58 percent of the vote against limited intra-party opposition, advancing to face Republican Ricardo Cabrera in the November general election. High Democratic voter registration, urban and suburban demographics centered in San Diego County, and Jacobs's established fundraising and visibility contribute to the market's 94.5 percent implied probability for a Democratic outcome. A narrow Republican path would require an unprecedented national wave, late-cycle scandal, or major turnout anomaly to overcome the structural advantages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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