Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,931 Vol.
$24,931 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$24,931 Vol.
$24,931 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,496 Vol.
95%
共和党
$13,435 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$24,931終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$24,931終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brad Sherman advanced from the June 2026 primary to face Republican Larry Thompson in the November general election for California's 32nd congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Sherman's decades-long tenure and name recognition in the San Fernando Valley suburbs further solidify this position against a low-profile challenger. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unusually strong Republican national environment, though such shifts would require substantial evidence to alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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