Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,927 Vol.
$15,927 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$15,927 Vol.
$15,927 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$7,679 Vol.
95%
共和党
$8,248 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$15,927終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,927終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican Eric Ching in California's 31st district. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic due to the area's established partisan composition, consistent voter turnout patterns favoring Democrats, and the state's broader electoral environment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a viable Republican path. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such events remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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