Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, reinforced by sustained allied diplomatic engagement, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by June 30. Recent NATO-Ukraine Council meetings in Kyiv, including the June 3 visit by the full North Atlantic Council and Secretary General Mark Rutte, have reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration and interoperability reforms without any conditions tied to renouncing accession. Ongoing trilateral talks with Russia remain stalled without deadlines or breakthroughs that would compel Kyiv to alter its stance on alliance membership in the narrow remaining window. While a sudden U.S.-brokered peace framework or major escalation could theoretically prompt concessions, the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$2,144,716 Vol.
$2,144,716 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$2,144,716 Vol.
$2,144,716 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, reinforced by sustained allied diplomatic engagement, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by June 30. Recent NATO-Ukraine Council meetings in Kyiv, including the June 3 visit by the full North Atlantic Council and Secretary General Mark Rutte, have reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration and interoperability reforms without any conditions tied to renouncing accession. Ongoing trilateral talks with Russia remain stalled without deadlines or breakthroughs that would compel Kyiv to alter its stance on alliance membership in the narrow remaining window. While a sudden U.S.-brokered peace framework or major escalation could theoretically prompt concessions, the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
音量
$2,144,716終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, reinforced by sustained allied diplomatic engagement, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by June 30. Recent NATO-Ukraine Council meetings in Kyiv, including the June 3 visit by the full North Atlantic Council and Secretary General Mark Rutte, have reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration and interoperability reforms without any conditions tied to renouncing accession. Ongoing trilateral talks with Russia remain stalled without deadlines or breakthroughs that would compel Kyiv to alter its stance on alliance membership in the narrow remaining window. While a sudden U.S.-brokered peace framework or major escalation could theoretically prompt concessions, the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
音量
$2,144,716終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership, reinforced by sustained allied diplomatic engagement, underpins trader expectations that no neutrality pledge will emerge by June 30. Recent NATO-Ukraine Council meetings in Kyiv, including the June 3 visit by the full North Atlantic Council and Secretary General Mark Rutte, have reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration and interoperability reforms without any conditions tied to renouncing accession. Ongoing trilateral talks with Russia remain stalled without deadlines or breakthroughs that would compel Kyiv to alter its stance on alliance membership in the narrow remaining window. While a sudden U.S.-brokered peace framework or major escalation could theoretically prompt concessions, the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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