This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits national elections while martial law remains in force, and parliament's April 2026 renewal extended the measure until August 2, 2026, marking the nineteenth consecutive three-month extension since Russia's 2022 invasion. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any vote on a ceasefire plus security guarantees, followed by at least a six-month preparation window, a stance reinforced in recent statements at the Munich Security Conference and in response to U.S. pressure for earlier balloting. Technical preparations for wartime voting have advanced in parliamentary working groups, yet logistical barriers—including voting access for displaced citizens and frontline troops—continue to shape the timeline. Traders therefore track the next parliamentary renewal vote and any diplomatic progress toward a ceasefire as the primary catalysts that could shift the implied probability of an election call before or after the August deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits national elections while martial law remains in force, and parliament's April 2026 renewal extended the measure until August 2, 2026, marking the nineteenth consecutive three-month extension since Russia's 2022 invasion. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any vote on a ceasefire plus security guarantees, followed by at least a six-month preparation window, a stance reinforced in recent statements at the Munich Security Conference and in response to U.S. pressure for earlier balloting. Technical preparations for wartime voting have advanced in parliamentary working groups, yet logistical barriers—including voting access for displaced citizens and frontline troops—continue to shape the timeline. Traders therefore track the next parliamentary renewal vote and any diplomatic progress toward a ceasefire as the primary catalysts that could shift the implied probability of an election call before or after the August deadline.
Ongoing peace negotiations focused on security guarantees and economic recovery, with no mention of a 2025 election date, further depressing the market's 'Yes' probability.
Apr 28 2026
No official announcement on Ukrainian presidential election date amid ongoing war and peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and military developments, no official date for the next Ukrainian presidential election was announced by the government, leading to a further decline in market confidence that the election would be scheduled in 2025.
Apr 16 2026
Ukraine faces increased military pressure as Russia plans new offensives amid stalled peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Reports on April 16 highlighted that Ukraine was under growing military pressure due to Russia's planned new offensives and the suspension of U.S.-brokered peace talks caused by the war in Iran. This situation likely diminished expectations for a timely election announcement, contributing to the market's decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome probability.
Apr 16 2026
Zelenskyy's hold on power remains secure under martial law
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Analysis confirmed that martial law indefinitely postpones elections, making it highly unlikely for a presidential election to be scheduled while the war continues.
Mar 31 2026
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish high-level military dialogue amid Ukraine war talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The U.S. and Russia agreed to restore military communication channels to facilitate peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate resolution or election scheduling in Ukraine, keeping market expectations low for a 2025 election date announcement.
Mar 19 2026
Russia’s war effort bolstered by Iran conflict raises pressure on Ukraine
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%7%
Reports that Russia is gaining resources from the Iran war and preparing new offensives heightened fears that Ukraine’s focus would shift to defense, lowering expectations of a 2025 election announcement.
Mar 9 2026
Zelenskyy faces pressure as peace talks stall over territorial demands
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
Reports indicated that U.S.-brokered peace talks were struggling due to conflicting territorial demands, reinforcing the view that the war would continue and elections would remain suspended under martial law.
Mar 9 2026
European leaders pledge troops for Ukraine in Paris peace talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%6%
During a two‑day summit in Paris, the UK and France announced a commitment to send troops to Ukraine as part of a security‑guarantee package, but no election timetable was agreed, reinforcing market sentiment that a 2025 election was unlikely and pushing the June 30, 2026 price down sharply.
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian military intelligence chief appointed as presidential chief of staff
June 30, 2026 plunges to 8%15%
Appointment of a military intelligence leader to a key political role underscored focus on security over elections, reinforcing market expectations against a 2025 election date.
Feb 23 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy faces growing political pressure amid war and corruption scandal
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%9%
President Zelenskyy was under increasing pressure due to a corruption scandal and the ongoing war, with martial law still in effect postponing elections. This diminished market confidence in a 2025 election date announcement.
Feb 19 2026
Ukraine faces growing pressure due to Iran war as Russia plans new offensives
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%5%
The war in Iran and resulting geopolitical tensions have strained Ukraine's position, with Russia preparing new military offensives. This increased pressure and uncertainty likely reduced confidence in Ukraine holding elections by June 30, 2026, as the conflict situation remains unstable.
Feb 12 2026
U.S. 28‑point peace plan detailed in media reports
June 30, 2026 drops to 28%8%
Follow‑up coverage clarified the contents of the February 11 proposal, emphasizing that the plan did not include a firm election date, tempering earlier optimism and causing a modest pull‑back in the June 30, 2026 price.
Feb 11 2026
U.S. presents 28‑point Ukraine‑Russia peace plan to Zelenskyy
June 30, 2026 jumps to 36%14%
President Biden’s administration unveiled a detailed 28‑point proposal aimed at ending the war, raising hopes that a post‑war political timetable, including elections, could be set soon. Traders interpreted this as increasing the chance of a 2025 election, driving the June 30, 2026 outcome up.
Feb 4 2026
Next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks scheduled, no election date announced
June 30, 2026 drops to 17%5%
Peace talks continued without any announcement of an election date, maintaining market skepticism about a 2025 election.
Jan 14 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reshuffles leadership amid war and corruption scandals
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%18%
Zelenskyy’s reshuffle and anti-corruption efforts signaled political instability and reduced likelihood of holding elections in 2025, contributing to a market price drop for a 2025 election date.
Dec 14 2025
Market reacts to uncertainty as peace talks face challenges
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%6%
Following initial optimism, market prices dipped as unresolved issues in peace talks, especially territorial disputes, persisted, causing uncertainty about the timing of the next Ukrainian election.
Dec 11 2025
Zelenskyy says trilateral talks ended constructively with more planned
June 30, 2026 rises to 46%2%
Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. officials concluded constructive talks on possible parameters for ending the war, including discussions on elections, which supported market optimism about a 2026 election date.
Dec 9 2025
Zelenskyy meets with U.S. officials and Trump’s son-in-law for peace talks in Berlin
June 30, 2026 jumps to 44%6%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, discussing peace proposals that include elections after the war, influencing market views on election timing.
Nov 21 2025
Ukraine faces increased pressure amid ongoing war and peace talks
June 30, 2026 surges to 49%19%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was under growing pressure due to a corruption scandal and U.S. proposals requiring major concessions to end the war, impacting market expectations about election timing.
Nov 20 2025
Ukraine announces no immediate plans for presidential election amid ongoing war
June 30, 2026 surges to 46%24%
As the war with Russia continued, Ukrainian officials indicated that elections would not be held in 2025 due to martial law and security concerns, dampening market expectations for a 2025 election date.
Oct 21 2025
Ukraine’s election commission sets first round for June 30 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%16%
The Central Election Commission issued a formal notice that the election will be conducted in two rounds, with the first round scheduled for June 30 2026. This concrete timeline for a 2026 election reinforced market sentiment, causing the price to settle around 35 % and later stabilize near 28 % as the June 30 2026 date became the market’s primary reference.
Oct 16 2025
Zelenskyy reaffirms Dec 31 2026 election date, ending 2025 speculation
December 31, 2026 surges to 51%38%
Zelenskyy reaffirmed that the next election would adhere to the Dec 31 2026 schedule, dismissing earlier speculation. The clarification restored confidence in the 2026 outcome, lifting the “Yes” price back to 51 % on Oct 16.
Oct 15 2025
Zelenskyy says a peace deal could trigger an earlier election, raising 2025 hopes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 13%32%
During a high‑profile meeting in Berlin, Zelenskyy hinted that an election could be called sooner if a peace deal were reached, sparking speculation that a 2025 schedule might still be possible. The market reacted with a sharp 32‑point drop to 13 % on Oct 15 as traders priced in renewed uncertainty about the 2026 timetable.
Oct 1 2025
Ukrainian parliament extends presidential term to 2027, confirming no 2025 election
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%10%
Parliament passed a law extending the current presidential term to 2027, effectively postponing any election until after 2026. The move reinforced the earlier Dec 31 2026 date, causing a brief rally of the “Yes” price to 40 % on Oct 1 before a rapid reversal as traders reassessed the certainty of the 2026 schedule.
Sep 26 2025
Ukraine sets presidential election for Dec 31 2026, ruling out a 2025 vote
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%21%
The Ukrainian government formally announced that a presidential election would be held on 31 December 2026, confirming the election would not occur in 2025. This announcement directly addressed the market’s “Yes” condition – a schedule for the next election in 2025 – and pushed the probability of a “Yes” outcome sharply lower, matching the price drop from 51 % on Sep 24 to 30 % on Sep 26.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits national elections while martial law remains in force, and parliament's April 2026 renewal extended the measure until August 2, 2026, marking the nineteenth consecutive three-month extension since Russia's 2022 invasion. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any vote on a ceasefire plus security guarantees, followed by at least a six-month preparation window, a stance reinforced in recent statements at the Munich Security Conference and in response to U.S. pressure for earlier balloting. Technical preparations for wartime voting have advanced in parliamentary working groups, yet logistical barriers—including voting access for displaced citizens and frontline troops—continue to shape the timeline. Traders therefore track the next parliamentary renewal vote and any diplomatic progress toward a ceasefire as the primary catalysts that could shift the implied probability of an election call before or after the August deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits national elections while martial law remains in force, and parliament's April 2026 renewal extended the measure until August 2, 2026, marking the nineteenth consecutive three-month extension since Russia's 2022 invasion. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any vote on a ceasefire plus security guarantees, followed by at least a six-month preparation window, a stance reinforced in recent statements at the Munich Security Conference and in response to U.S. pressure for earlier balloting. Technical preparations for wartime voting have advanced in parliamentary working groups, yet logistical barriers—including voting access for displaced citizens and frontline troops—continue to shape the timeline. Traders therefore track the next parliamentary renewal vote and any diplomatic progress toward a ceasefire as the primary catalysts that could shift the implied probability of an election call before or after the August deadline.
Ongoing peace negotiations focused on security guarantees and economic recovery, with no mention of a 2025 election date, further depressing the market's 'Yes' probability.
Apr 28 2026
No official announcement on Ukrainian presidential election date amid ongoing war and peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and military developments, no official date for the next Ukrainian presidential election was announced by the government, leading to a further decline in market confidence that the election would be scheduled in 2025.
Apr 16 2026
Ukraine faces increased military pressure as Russia plans new offensives amid stalled peace talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Reports on April 16 highlighted that Ukraine was under growing military pressure due to Russia's planned new offensives and the suspension of U.S.-brokered peace talks caused by the war in Iran. This situation likely diminished expectations for a timely election announcement, contributing to the market's decline in the June 30, 2026 outcome probability.
Apr 16 2026
Zelenskyy's hold on power remains secure under martial law
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Analysis confirmed that martial law indefinitely postpones elections, making it highly unlikely for a presidential election to be scheduled while the war continues.
Mar 31 2026
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish high-level military dialogue amid Ukraine war talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The U.S. and Russia agreed to restore military communication channels to facilitate peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate resolution or election scheduling in Ukraine, keeping market expectations low for a 2025 election date announcement.
Mar 19 2026
Russia’s war effort bolstered by Iran conflict raises pressure on Ukraine
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%7%
Reports that Russia is gaining resources from the Iran war and preparing new offensives heightened fears that Ukraine’s focus would shift to defense, lowering expectations of a 2025 election announcement.
Mar 9 2026
Zelenskyy faces pressure as peace talks stall over territorial demands
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
Reports indicated that U.S.-brokered peace talks were struggling due to conflicting territorial demands, reinforcing the view that the war would continue and elections would remain suspended under martial law.
Mar 9 2026
European leaders pledge troops for Ukraine in Paris peace talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%6%
During a two‑day summit in Paris, the UK and France announced a commitment to send troops to Ukraine as part of a security‑guarantee package, but no election timetable was agreed, reinforcing market sentiment that a 2025 election was unlikely and pushing the June 30, 2026 price down sharply.
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian military intelligence chief appointed as presidential chief of staff
June 30, 2026 plunges to 8%15%
Appointment of a military intelligence leader to a key political role underscored focus on security over elections, reinforcing market expectations against a 2025 election date.
Feb 23 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy faces growing political pressure amid war and corruption scandal
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%9%
President Zelenskyy was under increasing pressure due to a corruption scandal and the ongoing war, with martial law still in effect postponing elections. This diminished market confidence in a 2025 election date announcement.
Feb 19 2026
Ukraine faces growing pressure due to Iran war as Russia plans new offensives
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%5%
The war in Iran and resulting geopolitical tensions have strained Ukraine's position, with Russia preparing new military offensives. This increased pressure and uncertainty likely reduced confidence in Ukraine holding elections by June 30, 2026, as the conflict situation remains unstable.
Feb 12 2026
U.S. 28‑point peace plan detailed in media reports
June 30, 2026 drops to 28%8%
Follow‑up coverage clarified the contents of the February 11 proposal, emphasizing that the plan did not include a firm election date, tempering earlier optimism and causing a modest pull‑back in the June 30, 2026 price.
Feb 11 2026
U.S. presents 28‑point Ukraine‑Russia peace plan to Zelenskyy
June 30, 2026 jumps to 36%14%
President Biden’s administration unveiled a detailed 28‑point proposal aimed at ending the war, raising hopes that a post‑war political timetable, including elections, could be set soon. Traders interpreted this as increasing the chance of a 2025 election, driving the June 30, 2026 outcome up.
Feb 4 2026
Next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks scheduled, no election date announced
June 30, 2026 drops to 17%5%
Peace talks continued without any announcement of an election date, maintaining market skepticism about a 2025 election.
Jan 14 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reshuffles leadership amid war and corruption scandals
June 30, 2026 plunges to 20%18%
Zelenskyy’s reshuffle and anti-corruption efforts signaled political instability and reduced likelihood of holding elections in 2025, contributing to a market price drop for a 2025 election date.
Dec 14 2025
Market reacts to uncertainty as peace talks face challenges
June 30, 2026 drops to 38%6%
Following initial optimism, market prices dipped as unresolved issues in peace talks, especially territorial disputes, persisted, causing uncertainty about the timing of the next Ukrainian election.
Dec 11 2025
Zelenskyy says trilateral talks ended constructively with more planned
June 30, 2026 rises to 46%2%
Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. officials concluded constructive talks on possible parameters for ending the war, including discussions on elections, which supported market optimism about a 2026 election date.
Dec 9 2025
Zelenskyy meets with U.S. officials and Trump’s son-in-law for peace talks in Berlin
June 30, 2026 jumps to 44%6%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, discussing peace proposals that include elections after the war, influencing market views on election timing.
Nov 21 2025
Ukraine faces increased pressure amid ongoing war and peace talks
June 30, 2026 surges to 49%19%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was under growing pressure due to a corruption scandal and U.S. proposals requiring major concessions to end the war, impacting market expectations about election timing.
Nov 20 2025
Ukraine announces no immediate plans for presidential election amid ongoing war
June 30, 2026 surges to 46%24%
As the war with Russia continued, Ukrainian officials indicated that elections would not be held in 2025 due to martial law and security concerns, dampening market expectations for a 2025 election date.
Oct 21 2025
Ukraine’s election commission sets first round for June 30 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%16%
The Central Election Commission issued a formal notice that the election will be conducted in two rounds, with the first round scheduled for June 30 2026. This concrete timeline for a 2026 election reinforced market sentiment, causing the price to settle around 35 % and later stabilize near 28 % as the June 30 2026 date became the market’s primary reference.
Oct 16 2025
Zelenskyy reaffirms Dec 31 2026 election date, ending 2025 speculation
December 31, 2026 surges to 51%38%
Zelenskyy reaffirmed that the next election would adhere to the Dec 31 2026 schedule, dismissing earlier speculation. The clarification restored confidence in the 2026 outcome, lifting the “Yes” price back to 51 % on Oct 16.
Oct 15 2025
Zelenskyy says a peace deal could trigger an earlier election, raising 2025 hopes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 13%32%
During a high‑profile meeting in Berlin, Zelenskyy hinted that an election could be called sooner if a peace deal were reached, sparking speculation that a 2025 schedule might still be possible. The market reacted with a sharp 32‑point drop to 13 % on Oct 15 as traders priced in renewed uncertainty about the 2026 timetable.
Oct 1 2025
Ukrainian parliament extends presidential term to 2027, confirming no 2025 election
December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%10%
Parliament passed a law extending the current presidential term to 2027, effectively postponing any election until after 2026. The move reinforced the earlier Dec 31 2026 date, causing a brief rally of the “Yes” price to 40 % on Oct 1 before a rapid reversal as traders reassessed the certainty of the 2026 schedule.
Sep 26 2025
Ukraine sets presidential election for Dec 31 2026, ruling out a 2025 vote
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%21%
The Ukrainian government formally announced that a presidential election would be held on 31 December 2026, confirming the election would not occur in 2025. This announcement directly addressed the market’s “Yes” condition – a schedule for the next election in 2025 – and pushed the probability of a “Yes” outcome sharply lower, matching the price drop from 51 % on Sep 24 to 30 % on Sep 26.
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