Recent polling fluctuations between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil have kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote. Surveys from firms such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow leads that swing by several points depending on the scenario tested, reflecting voter indecision and divided preferences across first-round and runoff matchups. Traders assign ACM Neto the leading probability at 47.5 percent, followed closely by Rodrigues at 40 percent, consistent with the absence of a decisive breakout in state-level surveys. Upcoming campaign events, candidate positioning on public security and economic management, and any consolidation of smaller candidacies could shift momentum before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 40%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 거래량
$13,978 거래량
2026.10.04
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
40%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 40%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 거래량
$13,978 거래량
2026.10.04
ACM Neto
$3,766 거래량
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,844 거래량
40%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 거래량
<1%
João Roma
$966 거래량
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 거래량
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 거래량
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 거래량
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling fluctuations between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil have kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote. Surveys from firms such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow leads that swing by several points depending on the scenario tested, reflecting voter indecision and divided preferences across first-round and runoff matchups. Traders assign ACM Neto the leading probability at 47.5 percent, followed closely by Rodrigues at 40 percent, consistent with the absence of a decisive breakout in state-level surveys. Upcoming campaign events, candidate positioning on public security and economic management, and any consolidation of smaller candidacies could shift momentum before election day.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
거래량
$13,978종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling fluctuations between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil have kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote. Surveys from firms such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow leads that swing by several points depending on the scenario tested, reflecting voter indecision and divided preferences across first-round and runoff matchups. Traders assign ACM Neto the leading probability at 47.5 percent, followed closely by Rodrigues at 40 percent, consistent with the absence of a decisive breakout in state-level surveys. Upcoming campaign events, candidate positioning on public security and economic management, and any consolidation of smaller candidacies could shift momentum before election day.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
거래량
$13,978종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling fluctuations between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil have kept the Bahia gubernatorial contest highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote. Surveys from firms such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow leads that swing by several points depending on the scenario tested, reflecting voter indecision and divided preferences across first-round and runoff matchups. Traders assign ACM Neto the leading probability at 47.5 percent, followed closely by Rodrigues at 40 percent, consistent with the absence of a decisive breakout in state-level surveys. Upcoming campaign events, candidate positioning on public security and economic management, and any consolidation of smaller candidacies could shift momentum before election day.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문