Trader consensus reflects 95.6% implied probability against Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan rejections of Democratic-led measures invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution to curb U.S. hostilities in Iran. Since major combat began in late February, at least six Senate blocks and multiple House defeats—such as 213-214 on April 16 and party-line tallies through April 30—have occurred amid the 60-day authorization deadline lapse on May 1, with Republicans holding firm and some Democrats like Sen. Fetterman opposing. The Trump administration claims a ceasefire negates further approval needs. Recent introductions like Rep. Foushee's resolution face slim odds without GOP defections, major escalation, or procedural breakthroughs before Memorial Day recesses.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.05.31
신규
신규
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 95.6% implied probability against Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan rejections of Democratic-led measures invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution to curb U.S. hostilities in Iran. Since major combat began in late February, at least six Senate blocks and multiple House defeats—such as 213-214 on April 16 and party-line tallies through April 30—have occurred amid the 60-day authorization deadline lapse on May 1, with Republicans holding firm and some Democrats like Sen. Fetterman opposing. The Trump administration claims a ceasefire negates further approval needs. Recent introductions like Rep. Foushee's resolution face slim odds without GOP defections, major escalation, or procedural breakthroughs before Memorial Day recesses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
거래량
$2,520종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 95.6% implied probability against Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan rejections of Democratic-led measures invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution to curb U.S. hostilities in Iran. Since major combat began in late February, at least six Senate blocks and multiple House defeats—such as 213-214 on April 16 and party-line tallies through April 30—have occurred amid the 60-day authorization deadline lapse on May 1, with Republicans holding firm and some Democrats like Sen. Fetterman opposing. The Trump administration claims a ceasefire negates further approval needs. Recent introductions like Rep. Foushee's resolution face slim odds without GOP defections, major escalation, or procedural breakthroughs before Memorial Day recesses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces. Non-binding statements or measures that express disapproval, call for investigation, or otherwise relate to the US/Israel-Iran conflict without seeking to limit military action will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently finally passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution sources will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$2,520종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 95.6% implied probability against Congress passing an Iran war powers resolution by May 31, driven by repeated bipartisan rejections of Democratic-led measures invoking the 1973 War Powers Resolution to curb U.S. hostilities in Iran. Since major combat began in late February, at least six Senate blocks and multiple House defeats—such as 213-214 on April 16 and party-line tallies through April 30—have occurred amid the 60-day authorization deadline lapse on May 1, with Republicans holding firm and some Democrats like Sen. Fetterman opposing. The Trump administration claims a ceasefire negates further approval needs. Recent introductions like Rep. Foushee's resolution face slim odds without GOP defections, major escalation, or procedural breakthroughs before Memorial Day recesses.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문