Turkey’s constitution sets President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current term to expire in 2028 following his 2023 reelection, with the ruling AKP holding a parliamentary majority that can block any opposition push for snap elections before that date. Recent statements from Erdoğan and AKP leaders have framed 2026 as a “year of reform” focused on domestic policy, while February health rumors faded without triggering institutional action or succession procedures. Opposition challenges remain limited after the arrest and trial of leading rival Ekrem İmamoğlu, reducing near-term pressure for early departure. Traders therefore assign only an 11 percent chance that Erdoğan leaves office by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of constitutional, electoral, or health developments capable of forcing an exit inside the resolution window.