Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 79.5% implied probability for Florida's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent John Rutherford's dominant position in this R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index district, where he won reelection in 2024 by 26 points with 63.1% of the vote. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate it Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's reliable GOP lean in Jacksonville suburbs amid stable mid-decade redistricting outcomes. Rutherford leads Republican primary challengers Mark Kaye and Donald Muirheid in fundraising ($407,000 cash on hand as of late March), while the fragmented Democratic primary field—led by Rachel Grage ($95,000 cash)—lacks competitive resources. With primaries on August 18 and general election November 3, no major developments have shifted odds in the past month, underscoring low upset risk barring national midterm waves.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
14%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$3,613 거래량
81%
Democratic Party
$2,149 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 79.5% implied probability for Florida's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent John Rutherford's dominant position in this R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index district, where he won reelection in 2024 by 26 points with 63.1% of the vote. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate it Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's reliable GOP lean in Jacksonville suburbs amid stable mid-decade redistricting outcomes. Rutherford leads Republican primary challengers Mark Kaye and Donald Muirheid in fundraising ($407,000 cash on hand as of late March), while the fragmented Democratic primary field—led by Rachel Grage ($95,000 cash)—lacks competitive resources. With primaries on August 18 and general election November 3, no major developments have shifted odds in the past month, underscoring low upset risk barring national midterm waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
거래량
$5,761종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 79.5% implied probability for Florida's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent John Rutherford's dominant position in this R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index district, where he won reelection in 2024 by 26 points with 63.1% of the vote. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate it Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's reliable GOP lean in Jacksonville suburbs amid stable mid-decade redistricting outcomes. Rutherford leads Republican primary challengers Mark Kaye and Donald Muirheid in fundraising ($407,000 cash on hand as of late March), while the fragmented Democratic primary field—led by Rachel Grage ($95,000 cash)—lacks competitive resources. With primaries on August 18 and general election November 3, no major developments have shifted odds in the past month, underscoring low upset risk barring national midterm waves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$5,761종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 79.5% implied probability for Florida's 5th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent John Rutherford's dominant position in this R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index district, where he won reelection in 2024 by 26 points with 63.1% of the vote. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate it Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's reliable GOP lean in Jacksonville suburbs amid stable mid-decade redistricting outcomes. Rutherford leads Republican primary challengers Mark Kaye and Donald Muirheid in fundraising ($407,000 cash on hand as of late March), while the fragmented Democratic primary field—led by Rachel Grage ($95,000 cash)—lacks competitive resources. With primaries on August 18 and general election November 3, no major developments have shifted odds in the past month, underscoring low upset risk barring national midterm waves.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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