Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Lagos on May 14?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 14?
32°C 32%
33°C 21%
31°C 19%
30°C 15%
신규
$10,228 거래량
신규
$10,228 거래량
2026.05.14
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
15%
31°C
19%
32°C
32%
33°C
21%
34°C
5%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
2%
32°C 32%
33°C 21%
31°C 19%
30°C 15%
신규
$10,228 거래량
신규
$10,228 거래량
2026.05.14
27°C or below
$1,344 거래량
1%
28°C
$852 거래량
1%
29°C
$430 거래량
2%
30°C
$753 거래량
15%
31°C
$319 거래량
19%
32°C
$338 거래량
32%
33°C
$726 거래량
21%
34°C
$983 거래량
5%
35°C
$605 거래량
2%
36°C
$1,506 거래량
2%
37°C or higher
$2,377 거래량
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
거래량
$10,228종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$10,228종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NiMet and international model forecasts for Lagos's highest temperature on May 14, with 32°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid recent highs averaging 32–33°C over the past week. Differentiating factors include variable convective activity from the intensifying rainy season—above-normal rainfall per NiMet's 2026 seasonal outlook—which could suppress peaks to 31°C via afternoon thunderstorms, versus clearer morning skies allowing 33°C if sea breeze delays. Historical May averages hover at 31°C, but urban heat island effects and fading harmattan often push outliers higher. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and updated GFS/ECMWF runs by midday May 13 for shifts, as resolution hinges on official Murtala Muhammed Airport observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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