Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 29–32°C for Lagos's highest temperature on May 15, driven by NiMet and global model ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) forecasting daytime peaks near 31°C amid advancing West African monsoon influences. Recent NiMet seasonal outlooks predict above-normal 2026 rainfall, boosting convective cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms that cap highs through shading and evaporative cooling, following hotter early-May readings above 34°C. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing from the Guinea Current, potentially lowering temps by 1–2°C, versus urban heat island effects at monitoring stations; model spread captures this variability, with 31°C leading on ensemble means while 30–32°C vie closely pending final NiMet observations post-midday peak. New bulletins expected early May 15 could shift sentiment.