Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 and 34.5% to exactly one, reflecting the low historical frequency of such events documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 requires at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and a plume exceeding 10 km, criteria met only sporadically even among the dozens of ongoing eruptions tracked worldwide this year. Current activity remains dominated by smaller explosive or effusive events at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Piton de la Fournaise, and Semeru, with no confirmed VEI ≥4 episodes through mid-May. This quiet baseline aligns with the long-term average of fewer than one large explosive eruption per year, though new seismic or gas data from monitoring networks could still shift odds if a major stratovolcano enters a climactic phase before year-end.