Ongoing Iran hostilities and Tehran's asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 outcome at 61% implied probability. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily volumes stuck in the single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels, amid selective Iranian permitting, U.S. escort operations, and persistent safety concerns that have left hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers anchored. This constrained flow has tightened global energy supply chains, supporting elevated oil prices and highlighting the waterway's role as a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of seaborne crude. With the week of May 11 resolution drawing near, any short-term easing in regional posture or successful escorted convoys could shift volumes toward the 40-59 bucket at 28%, though sustained low activity reinforces the current market-implied odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트20-39 61%
40-59 29%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,993 거래량
$92,993 거래량
2026.05.17
<20
4%
20-39
61%
40-59
29%
60-79
5%
80+
1%
20-39 61%
40-59 29%
60-79 4.8%
<20 3.6%
$92,993 거래량
$92,993 거래량
2026.05.17
<20
$34,492 거래량
4%
20-39
$15,109 거래량
61%
40-59
$17,540 거래량
29%
60-79
$13,099 거래량
5%
80+
$12,752 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iran hostilities and Tehran's asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 outcome at 61% implied probability. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily volumes stuck in the single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels, amid selective Iranian permitting, U.S. escort operations, and persistent safety concerns that have left hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers anchored. This constrained flow has tightened global energy supply chains, supporting elevated oil prices and highlighting the waterway's role as a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of seaborne crude. With the week of May 11 resolution drawing near, any short-term easing in regional posture or successful escorted convoys could shift volumes toward the 40-59 bucket at 28%, though sustained low activity reinforces the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
마켓 개설일: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
거래량
$92,993종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iran hostilities and Tehran's asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 outcome at 61% implied probability. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily volumes stuck in the single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels, amid selective Iranian permitting, U.S. escort operations, and persistent safety concerns that have left hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers anchored. This constrained flow has tightened global energy supply chains, supporting elevated oil prices and highlighting the waterway's role as a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of seaborne crude. With the week of May 11 resolution drawing near, any short-term easing in regional posture or successful escorted convoys could shift volumes toward the 40-59 bucket at 28%, though sustained low activity reinforces the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
거래량
$92,993종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Iran hostilities and Tehran's asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, driving trader consensus toward the 20-39 outcome at 61% implied probability. Shipping data through mid-May shows daily volumes stuck in the single digits to low teens, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels, amid selective Iranian permitting, U.S. escort operations, and persistent safety concerns that have left hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers anchored. This constrained flow has tightened global energy supply chains, supporting elevated oil prices and highlighting the waterway's role as a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of seaborne crude. With the week of May 11 resolution drawing near, any short-term easing in regional posture or successful escorted convoys could shift volumes toward the 40-59 bucket at 28%, though sustained low activity reinforces the current market-implied odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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