Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$936,906 거래량
2026.05.31
May 31
3%
6월 30일
13%
$936,906 거래량
May 31
$281,744 거래량
3%
6월 30일
$340,547 거래량
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
거래량
$936,906종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$936,906종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, intensified by the 2026 conflict that began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites in February, continue to shape trader assessments of any near-term permanent peace deal. A fragile ceasefire agreed in April, mediated by Pakistan and extended in Lebanon through mid-June, has not resolved core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program, and support for regional proxies. Recent U.S. proposals demand verifiable limits on these capabilities without sunset clauses, while Israeli officials have stressed that enriched material must be removed and facilities dismantled before hostilities fully end. Ongoing U.S. naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz and reported preparations for renewed strikes add pressure, though diplomatic channels remain open amid economic strain on Iran. These factors keep the probability of a comprehensive bilateral agreement low until nuclear and security guarantees are addressed.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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