Traders assign a 75% probability to Japan avoiding recession in 2026 because the latest consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions all project positive real GDP growth of 0.5–0.8% for the calendar year. The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices lowered its fiscal 2026 growth estimate to 0.5% from prior guidance but still anticipates expansion, supported by resilient domestic demand, continued real wage gains, and business investment amid labor shortages. Recent data reinforce this view, with the economy narrowly avoiding technical recession in Q4 2025 and private-sector estimates pointing to 1.8% annualized growth in Q1 2026. While higher crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions have tempered near-term momentum, leading indicators such as the March 2026 Leading Economic Index remain elevated, and no major contractionary catalysts have emerged to shift the market-implied odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2027.03.31
신규
신규
2027.03.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Traders assign a 75% probability to Japan avoiding recession in 2026 because the latest consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions all project positive real GDP growth of 0.5–0.8% for the calendar year. The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices lowered its fiscal 2026 growth estimate to 0.5% from prior guidance but still anticipates expansion, supported by resilient domestic demand, continued real wage gains, and business investment amid labor shortages. Recent data reinforce this view, with the economy narrowly avoiding technical recession in Q4 2025 and private-sector estimates pointing to 1.8% annualized growth in Q1 2026. While higher crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions have tempered near-term momentum, leading indicators such as the March 2026 Leading Economic Index remain elevated, and no major contractionary catalysts have emerged to shift the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
마켓 개설일: Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
거래량
$1,783종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.Traders assign a 75% probability to Japan avoiding recession in 2026 because the latest consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions all project positive real GDP growth of 0.5–0.8% for the calendar year. The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices lowered its fiscal 2026 growth estimate to 0.5% from prior guidance but still anticipates expansion, supported by resilient domestic demand, continued real wage gains, and business investment amid labor shortages. Recent data reinforce this view, with the economy narrowly avoiding technical recession in Q4 2025 and private-sector estimates pointing to 1.8% annualized growth in Q1 2026. While higher crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions have tempered near-term momentum, leading indicators such as the March 2026 Leading Economic Index remain elevated, and no major contractionary catalysts have emerged to shift the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time.
The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
거래량
$1,783종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 75% probability to Japan avoiding recession in 2026 because the latest consensus forecasts from the Bank of Japan, IMF, and private institutions all project positive real GDP growth of 0.5–0.8% for the calendar year. The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices lowered its fiscal 2026 growth estimate to 0.5% from prior guidance but still anticipates expansion, supported by resilient domestic demand, continued real wage gains, and business investment amid labor shortages. Recent data reinforce this view, with the economy narrowly avoiding technical recession in Q4 2025 and private-sector estimates pointing to 1.8% annualized growth in Q1 2026. While higher crude oil prices linked to Middle East tensions have tempered near-term momentum, leading indicators such as the March 2026 Leading Economic Index remain elevated, and no major contractionary catalysts have emerged to shift the market-implied odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문