Taiwan's opposition parties hold roughly 60 seats in the 113-member Legislative Yuan, well short of the 76 votes required for a two-thirds majority to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te to the Constitutional Court. The drive, launched in December 2025 over a fiscal revenue dispute, faces a recorded vote on May 19 that traders view as unlikely to succeed given stable party lines and the absence of major defections or scandals. Even if the legislature cleared the threshold, court review would extend well beyond the June 30 resolution date. This structural shortfall underpins the 98 percent trader consensus against impeachment by the deadline, with only remote possibilities such as sudden coalition shifts or late-breaking evidence capable of altering the trajectory before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$618,916 거래량
$618,916 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$618,916 거래량
$618,916 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's opposition parties hold roughly 60 seats in the 113-member Legislative Yuan, well short of the 76 votes required for a two-thirds majority to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te to the Constitutional Court. The drive, launched in December 2025 over a fiscal revenue dispute, faces a recorded vote on May 19 that traders view as unlikely to succeed given stable party lines and the absence of major defections or scandals. Even if the legislature cleared the threshold, court review would extend well beyond the June 30 resolution date. This structural shortfall underpins the 98 percent trader consensus against impeachment by the deadline, with only remote possibilities such as sudden coalition shifts or late-breaking evidence capable of altering the trajectory before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
거래량
$618,916종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's opposition parties hold roughly 60 seats in the 113-member Legislative Yuan, well short of the 76 votes required for a two-thirds majority to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te to the Constitutional Court. The drive, launched in December 2025 over a fiscal revenue dispute, faces a recorded vote on May 19 that traders view as unlikely to succeed given stable party lines and the absence of major defections or scandals. Even if the legislature cleared the threshold, court review would extend well beyond the June 30 resolution date. This structural shortfall underpins the 98 percent trader consensus against impeachment by the deadline, with only remote possibilities such as sudden coalition shifts or late-breaking evidence capable of altering the trajectory before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
거래량
$618,916종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's opposition parties hold roughly 60 seats in the 113-member Legislative Yuan, well short of the 76 votes required for a two-thirds majority to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te to the Constitutional Court. The drive, launched in December 2025 over a fiscal revenue dispute, faces a recorded vote on May 19 that traders view as unlikely to succeed given stable party lines and the absence of major defections or scandals. Even if the legislature cleared the threshold, court review would extend well beyond the June 30 resolution date. This structural shortfall underpins the 98 percent trader consensus against impeachment by the deadline, with only remote possibilities such as sudden coalition shifts or late-breaking evidence capable of altering the trajectory before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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