Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding lead in recent New Mexico Democratic primary polls—69% to challenger Matt Dodson's 9% in a late April survey—combined with no Republican having filed for the June 2 primary, anchors trader consensus at 95.7% for a Democratic winner in the November general election. New Mexico's consistent Democratic trifecta, Luján's incumbency advantage, and the state's battleground status limited to House races rather than the Senate seat reinforce this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include a credible GOP nominee emerging via write-in or late filing, a major scandal impacting Luján, or a strong national Republican midterm wave shifting voter turnout in this D+ leaning state.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,009 거래량
$15,009 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
96%
공화당
3%
$15,009 거래량
$15,009 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$8,093 거래량
96%
공화당
$6,916 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding lead in recent New Mexico Democratic primary polls—69% to challenger Matt Dodson's 9% in a late April survey—combined with no Republican having filed for the June 2 primary, anchors trader consensus at 95.7% for a Democratic winner in the November general election. New Mexico's consistent Democratic trifecta, Luján's incumbency advantage, and the state's battleground status limited to House races rather than the Senate seat reinforce this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include a credible GOP nominee emerging via write-in or late filing, a major scandal impacting Luján, or a strong national Republican midterm wave shifting voter turnout in this D+ leaning state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$15,009종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding lead in recent New Mexico Democratic primary polls—69% to challenger Matt Dodson's 9% in a late April survey—combined with no Republican having filed for the June 2 primary, anchors trader consensus at 95.7% for a Democratic winner in the November general election. New Mexico's consistent Democratic trifecta, Luján's incumbency advantage, and the state's battleground status limited to House races rather than the Senate seat reinforce this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include a credible GOP nominee emerging via write-in or late filing, a major scandal impacting Luján, or a strong national Republican midterm wave shifting voter turnout in this D+ leaning state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$15,009종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's commanding lead in recent New Mexico Democratic primary polls—69% to challenger Matt Dodson's 9% in a late April survey—combined with no Republican having filed for the June 2 primary, anchors trader consensus at 95.7% for a Democratic winner in the November general election. New Mexico's consistent Democratic trifecta, Luján's incumbency advantage, and the state's battleground status limited to House races rather than the Senate seat reinforce this positioning, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Realistic challenges include a credible GOP nominee emerging via write-in or late filing, a major scandal impacting Luján, or a strong national Republican midterm wave shifting voter turnout in this D+ leaning state.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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