Pedro Sánchez’s minority coalition government continues to face pressure from ongoing corruption investigations, including the Caso Koldo scandal, and tensions with parliamentary partners on the left and in Catalonia and the Basque Country. Opposition parties have repeatedly demanded early elections, yet Sánchez has publicly committed to completing his term through 2027 and running again, even without passage of a new budget. No viable no-confidence motion has emerged, and smaller coalition parties lack incentive to trigger elections they would likely lose. Regional contests scheduled for 2026 and the absence of immediate institutional deadlines further support trader expectations that Sánchez will remain in office at least through the end of the year.