US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI report, indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed unification timeline or current invasion plans, favoring sustained gray-zone tactics such as military exercises, air incursions, and diplomatic isolation over kinetic action. This underpins trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% implied probability for no invasion by December 31, 2026. Recent developments through mid-June 2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts, while Beijing emphasizes influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections and manages cross-strait economic ties. High logistical risks, potential intervention costs, and domestic priorities further elevate barriers, with analysts noting routine activities without signals of imminent escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$34,699,066 거래량
$34,699,066 거래량
예
$34,699,066 거래량
$34,699,066 거래량
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI report, indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed unification timeline or current invasion plans, favoring sustained gray-zone tactics such as military exercises, air incursions, and diplomatic isolation over kinetic action. This underpins trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% implied probability for no invasion by December 31, 2026. Recent developments through mid-June 2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts, while Beijing emphasizes influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections and manages cross-strait economic ties. High logistical risks, potential intervention costs, and domestic priorities further elevate barriers, with analysts noting routine activities without signals of imminent escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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