The tight trader consensus around Mathieu Rivest (CAQ incumbent at 42.5%), Valérie Hamel (PQ at 26%), Frédéric Poulin (PCQ at 25.5%), and Nancy St-Pierre (PLQ at 24%) reflects a fragmented riding where provincial polling trends show CAQ, PQ, and PCQ support clustered within a few points. Rivest won comfortably in 2022, but recent models project a much narrower margin amid broader erosion of CAQ strength and gains for PQ and PCQ in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region. The October 5 election date and ongoing campaign, with candidates confirmed since early August, keep probabilities closely matched as no single party has established a decisive local advantage. Further separation could emerge from late polling shifts, party leader visits, or voter reaction to regional issues such as health-care access and economic development.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMathieu Rivest 42%
Valérie Hamel 27%
Nancy St-Pierre 25%
Frédéric Poulin 25%
Mathieu Rivest
42%
Valérie Hamel
27%
Nancy St-Pierre
25%
Frédéric Poulin
25%
Mathieu Rivest 42%
Valérie Hamel 27%
Nancy St-Pierre 25%
Frédéric Poulin 25%
Mathieu Rivest
42%
Valérie Hamel
27%
Nancy St-Pierre
25%
Frédéric Poulin
25%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 31, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The tight trader consensus around Mathieu Rivest (CAQ incumbent at 42.5%), Valérie Hamel (PQ at 26%), Frédéric Poulin (PCQ at 25.5%), and Nancy St-Pierre (PLQ at 24%) reflects a fragmented riding where provincial polling trends show CAQ, PQ, and PCQ support clustered within a few points. Rivest won comfortably in 2022, but recent models project a much narrower margin amid broader erosion of CAQ strength and gains for PQ and PCQ in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region. The October 5 election date and ongoing campaign, with candidates confirmed since early August, keep probabilities closely matched as no single party has established a decisive local advantage. Further separation could emerge from late polling shifts, party leader visits, or voter reaction to regional issues such as health-care access and economic development.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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