Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth bins for 2026. Business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies has sustained above-trend expansion despite softer consumer spending and elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East developments. July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% have kept the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target, limiting monetary support. Consensus projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private banks cluster at 2.1–2.3%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds offset by tariff effects and labor-market moderation. Market-implied odds therefore hinge on incoming inflation prints, Q3 GDP revisions, and any FOMC signals through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 31%
1.5–2.0% 29.3%
>2.5% 20%
1.0–1.5% 9.7%
$58,224 Wol.
$58,224 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1.5–2.0%
29%
2.0–2.5%
31%
>2.5%
20%
2.0–2.5% 31%
1.5–2.0% 29.3%
>2.5% 20%
1.0–1.5% 9.7%
$58,224 Wol.
$58,224 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,469 Wol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$17,263 Wol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,824 Wol.
10%
1.5–2.0%
$6,632 Wol.
29%
2.0–2.5%
$7,095 Wol.
31%
>2.5%
$15,941 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth bins for 2026. Business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies has sustained above-trend expansion despite softer consumer spending and elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East developments. July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% have kept the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target, limiting monetary support. Consensus projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private banks cluster at 2.1–2.3%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds offset by tariff effects and labor-market moderation. Market-implied odds therefore hinge on incoming inflation prints, Q3 GDP revisions, and any FOMC signals through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$58,224Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth bins for 2026. Business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies has sustained above-trend expansion despite softer consumer spending and elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East developments. July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% have kept the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target, limiting monetary support. Consensus projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private banks cluster at 2.1–2.3%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds offset by tariff effects and labor-market moderation. Market-implied odds therefore hinge on incoming inflation prints, Q3 GDP revisions, and any FOMC signals through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$58,224Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the tight contest between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% GDP growth bins for 2026. Business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies has sustained above-trend expansion despite softer consumer spending and elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East developments. July CPI at 3.4% and core measures near 2.5% have kept the Federal Reserve on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate target, limiting monetary support. Consensus projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private banks cluster at 2.1–2.3%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds offset by tariff effects and labor-market moderation. Market-implied odds therefore hinge on incoming inflation prints, Q3 GDP revisions, and any FOMC signals through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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