Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance place New York City's maximum temperature for May 18 in the low-to-mid 80s under partly cloudy skies and a moderating southerly flow. Slight differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and afternoon wind speeds among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create genuine uncertainty between the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins that currently dominate trader consensus. These close probabilities reflect the narrow margin by which small forecast adjustments can shift the daily high across the 82 °F threshold, while historical May climatology around 75–77 °F provides baseline context for the warmer-than-average pattern now in place.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in NYC on May 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 18?
82-83°F 32%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 13%
NOWE
$13,421 Wol.
NOWE
$13,421 Wol.
May 18, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
8%
88°F or higher
4%
82-83°F 32%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 13%
NOWE
$13,421 Wol.
NOWE
$13,421 Wol.
May 18, 2026
69°F or below
$777 Wol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,093 Wol.
<1%
72-73°F
$2,907 Wol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,009 Wol.
1%
76-77°F
$2,064 Wol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,366 Wol.
13%
80-81°F
$507 Wol.
28%
82-83°F
$581 Wol.
32%
84-85°F
$1,265 Wol.
16%
86-87°F
$317 Wol.
8%
88°F or higher
$1,729 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance place New York City's maximum temperature for May 18 in the low-to-mid 80s under partly cloudy skies and a moderating southerly flow. Slight differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and afternoon wind speeds among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create genuine uncertainty between the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins that currently dominate trader consensus. These close probabilities reflect the narrow margin by which small forecast adjustments can shift the daily high across the 82 °F threshold, while historical May climatology around 75–77 °F provides baseline context for the warmer-than-average pattern now in place.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$13,421Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance place New York City's maximum temperature for May 18 in the low-to-mid 80s under partly cloudy skies and a moderating southerly flow. Slight differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and afternoon wind speeds among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create genuine uncertainty between the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins that currently dominate trader consensus. These close probabilities reflect the narrow margin by which small forecast adjustments can shift the daily high across the 82 °F threshold, while historical May climatology around 75–77 °F provides baseline context for the warmer-than-average pattern now in place.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$13,421Data zakończenia
May 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGARecent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance place New York City's maximum temperature for May 18 in the low-to-mid 80s under partly cloudy skies and a moderating southerly flow. Slight differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and afternoon wind speeds among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions create genuine uncertainty between the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins that currently dominate trader consensus. These close probabilities reflect the narrow margin by which small forecast adjustments can shift the daily high across the 82 °F threshold, while historical May climatology around 75–77 °F provides baseline context for the warmer-than-average pattern now in place.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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