Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a mild overnight period for Paris on May 21, with minimum temperatures likely settling in the 15–17 °C range under the influence of a high-pressure ridge and southerly flow that limits radiational cooling. This setup has shifted trader consensus toward the 17 °C or higher outcome at 38.5 % implied probability, well above the mid-May climatological average low of 9–11 °C recorded at Paris-Le Bourget. Key variables to watch include the next model runs, which could adjust for any increase in cloud cover or wind that would moderate temperatures downward, and official Météo-France observations once the 24-hour period closes.