Recent ensemble forecasts from global meteorological models indicate Chengdu's May 17 maximum will likely fall in the 27–31 °C range, with 28 °C currently carrying the highest market-implied probability at 23.5 %. Transitional spring conditions in the Sichuan Basin—moderate southerly flow, variable cloud cover, and localized afternoon heating—create genuine uncertainty between these closely spaced outcomes. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration highlights modest ridging that could allow brief warming above 30 °C if convection remains suppressed, while any increase in low-level moisture or early thunderstorm activity would cap readings nearer 27–28 °C. Traders are therefore watching the next 12–18 hours of model updates for shifts in boundary-layer thermodynamics and steering patterns that will determine the precise peak.