Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mild subtropical high pressure and southerly flow will keep Tokyo's overnight low near or above 20°C on May 21, driving the leading 41.5% market-implied probability for 21°C or higher. This positioning reflects late-May climatology, when average minima typically reach 16–18°C amid warming seasonal trends and reduced cold-air intrusions from the north. Model consensus shows limited variability from cloud cover or urban heat-island effects, though any unexpected nocturnal clearing could allow a dip into the mid-teens. Short-range JMA updates over the next 48 hours remain the key data points likely to influence trader adjustments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 21?
21°C or higher 35%
17°C 20%
16°C 19%
18°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
May 21, 2026
11°C or below
4%
12°C
4%
13°C
6%
14°C
11%
15°C
11%
16°C
19%
17°C
20%
18°C
12%
19°C
11%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
35%
21°C or higher 35%
17°C 20%
16°C 19%
18°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
May 21, 2026
11°C or below
$73 Wol.
4%
12°C
$267 Wol.
4%
13°C
$55 Wol.
6%
14°C
$0 Wol.
11%
15°C
$0 Wol.
11%
16°C
$0 Wol.
19%
17°C
$0 Wol.
20%
18°C
$0 Wol.
12%
19°C
$0 Wol.
11%
20°C
$0 Wol.
5%
21°C or higher
$25 Wol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mild subtropical high pressure and southerly flow will keep Tokyo's overnight low near or above 20°C on May 21, driving the leading 41.5% market-implied probability for 21°C or higher. This positioning reflects late-May climatology, when average minima typically reach 16–18°C amid warming seasonal trends and reduced cold-air intrusions from the north. Model consensus shows limited variability from cloud cover or urban heat-island effects, though any unexpected nocturnal clearing could allow a dip into the mid-teens. Short-range JMA updates over the next 48 hours remain the key data points likely to influence trader adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$421Data zakończenia
May 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mild subtropical high pressure and southerly flow will keep Tokyo's overnight low near or above 20°C on May 21, driving the leading 41.5% market-implied probability for 21°C or higher. This positioning reflects late-May climatology, when average minima typically reach 16–18°C amid warming seasonal trends and reduced cold-air intrusions from the north. Model consensus shows limited variability from cloud cover or urban heat-island effects, though any unexpected nocturnal clearing could allow a dip into the mid-teens. Short-range JMA updates over the next 48 hours remain the key data points likely to influence trader adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$421Data zakończenia
May 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mild subtropical high pressure and southerly flow will keep Tokyo's overnight low near or above 20°C on May 21, driving the leading 41.5% market-implied probability for 21°C or higher. This positioning reflects late-May climatology, when average minima typically reach 16–18°C amid warming seasonal trends and reduced cold-air intrusions from the north. Model consensus shows limited variability from cloud cover or urban heat-island effects, though any unexpected nocturnal clearing could allow a dip into the mid-teens. Short-range JMA updates over the next 48 hours remain the key data points likely to influence trader adjustments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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