Current forecast consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF models centers Paris’s May 17 daytime maximum near 16 °C, reflecting the lingering influence of an unstable, moisture-laden air mass that has kept skies mostly overcast across northern France. Persistent cloud cover limits daytime solar heating, while light southerly winds restrict vertical mixing and adiabatic warming at the surface. Climatological normals for mid-May highs sit between 17 °C and 19 °C, so today’s projected reading represents a modest negative departure driven by reduced insolation rather than an anomalous cold outbreak. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest upside risk if partial clearing develops late in the afternoon. Overnight model updates will refine the exact timing of any breaks in the cloud deck and determine whether the peak edges toward 17 °C or settles at 15 °C.